Cambodia is Treading a Fine Line

Former Thai PM Thaksin Shinawatra is stirring up a riot again. By request of the Cambodian PM Hun Sen, Thaksin has arrived in Phnom Penh in the capacity of an economic adviser. He is to address a seminar on November 12. Cambodia officials have made it clear that Thaksin is not to launch a political campaign against his antagonist Abhisit Vejjajiva (the current Thai PM).

Unfortunately, even with all that reassuring between such good friends, Abhisit isn't having such a good time with the idea of Hun Sen entertaining Thaksin - who was ousted in a military coup in 2006. Thailand has asked the Cambodian government to arrest and extradite Thaksin. The Thais have also recalled their envoy from Cambodia.

Cambodia is walking a fine line here. Elsewhere I've argued that one of Cambodia's strengths has been its ability to maintain fairly stable relations with its neighbors:

Outside its borders, Cambodia has been able to maintain fairly good relations with its neighboring states, especially considering the intensity of the social and political hostility felt by some Cambodians towards the Thai and Vietnamese. The conflict with Thailand over Preah Vihear last year was arguably its most serious border dispute in recent history. Although the anti-Thai riots of 2003 led to the damage of the Thai Embassy and some businesses, it is worth keeping in mind that such protests also occur in developed countries (for example, this year’s G20 protests in London which also wrecked havoc on many businesses). Certainly, tensions remain between Cambodia and its neighbors, especially Thailand. Yet Cambodia has been able to manage these relations quite well to prevent such tensions from exploding. Preah Vihear has left soldiers dead on both sides. But a look at other regions of the world where substantial preexisting tensions have not been managed effectively – such as sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East – reminds us of how the situation could be much worse.

Hosting Thaksin threatens to undermine this stability. Given Thailand's internal political problems, the government is extremely sensitive to any external actions that might exacerbate preexisting tensions among domestic factions. The Thai king's ailing health only contributes to the uncertainty and instability.

Cambodia should be very careful how it handles this situation. By hosting Thaksin Shinawatra in this official capacity, Hun Sen has placed his country in a minefield. One false step and the whole thing could blow up in everyone's face.