Tabris' Corner

Moving to new site!

2010-12-17T07:08:00.000-08:00

Obviously I haven't been keeping up this blog too often. I have been spending a good amount of my web time building a new site which is launching today. This new site will focus on a narrower topic field and also function as my "personal representative on the web," in addition to all that other social media stuff.

Thank you for all who have stayed with me with this blog. There are some big things in store in the future. I sincerely hope you like the new site.

Check out ColinCroninCom now

The Power of Multivitamins?

2010-11-04T08:53:00.000-07:00

Vitamin supplements are one of the most debated topics out there in terms of "lifesaver vs. scam" arguments. Ranging from your bargain basement One a Day multivitamin to high-quality but expensive brands such as Usana and Nutrilite, the health and sports supplements sector has exploded over the last couple decades, defying even the recession with industry growth.

While vitamin supplements are hotly debated, there is no real controversy about the importance of vitamins for physical health. Researchers at Yale University have found that a lack of Vitamin E can result in an up to 60% more likely chance of physical decline. Ideally the best way of attaining important vitamins is to get them straight from foods. However, for many of us in our busy lives that is not always possible. Moreover, in some cases acquiring the daily recommended amount from foods would require us to eat far more than we ever could or would want to.

New studies are now indicating that vitamins have a significant impact not only on physical, but also mental health. UC Irvine scientists have found that a form of Vitamin B3 called Nicotinamide plays a role in reducing the symptoms of Alzheimer's disease. It lowers levels of a protein that leads to the development of tangles, one of two brain lesions associated with the disease. Vitamin B3 also strengthens the pathways through which information travels in brain cells. This helps keep neurons alive and Alzheimer's at bay.

Research from the UK indicates that Vitamin D also has positive effects in staving off dementia:

Compared to participants with healthy levels of vitamin D, those who were severely deficient in the vitamin were 60 per cent more likely to experience substantial general cognitive decline, and 31 per cent more likely to experience new problems with mental flexibility. The researchers describe the results as “the first...to identify a clear link between low vitamin D levels and cognitive decline.”

One of the most important considerations with multivitamins is the risk associated with exceeding the daily recommended amount. For some vitamins there is no established daily amount which makes it difficult to judge if you are consuming too much or too little. However, an often overlooked fact is that there is no risk from water-soluble vitamins (the 12 B Vitamins and Vitamin C). Any amount of these vitamins not absorbed by your body throughout the day is simply flushed out. The risk of overdose comes from Vitamins A, D, E, and K. These are fat-soluble vitamins meaning excess amounts are stored in fat cells. This can become poisonous at high levels, although you generally have to consume very large quantities of these in order for them to have adverse effects.

It is smart to be watchful of your vitamin intake. But just as there is an unreasonable phobia of taking mass amounts of vitamins for health, so too is there an unreasonable phobia of taking too little vitamins for fear of overdose.

Link: How to Become an EKG Technician Online

2010-10-28T12:35:00.000-07:00

The electrocardiograph (EKG) technician is responsible for performing diagnostic tests on the heart to detect irregular rhythms and electrical abnormalities. Other responsibilities may include stress testing and monitoring brain function. EKG technicians play an integral role managing patients with heart disease. Certificate programs generally last around one year. Associate's and bachelor's degrees, lasting up to four years, will also include a number of other general education and science courses. Depending on the state and facility you work for, you may be required to pass an exam to become licensed. Online training programs provide the flexibility to hold a full- or part-time job while working toward an EKG certification

Read the rest of my piece at eHow.

The Power of Pro-Suming

2010-10-21T12:09:00.000-07:00

If you are unfamiliar with the concept of a pro-sumer, think of it as a combination of consumer and producer. In the age of e-commerce and online deep-discounts, many people have been fooled into believing that they are saving money by purchasing cheaper goods and services online. Ironically, we may actually be using up our money more quickly. Here's why.

If you are spending $50 to buy something online that retails in a brick & mortar store for $80, are you saving $30? Or are you spending $50? Consumption cannot help you build financial security because you spend your money to purchase liabilities that depreciate over time as opposed to assets that grow over time. The ones who benefit most from the e-commerce explosion are the producers of wealth, the companies that rack up record profits for themselves and their shareholders. The primary keys of wealth creation are to make money and build equity. You cannot do that if you are buying goods that lose value over time. The convenience of e-commerce has made it easier to spend our money more quickly.

The idea of being a pro-sumer is to consume the product and services that you want or need, while also positioning yourself to produce income by recommending those products and services to others. Referral-based business has been growing for a long-time, and some of the biggest companies in the world are profiting from it, including Google (through Google AdSense) and Amazon (through Amazon Associates), as well as some lesser known stores such as MoreStore.com. Facebook is a perfect example of a multi-billion dollar company whose value was built in this way.

Pro-suming with products that are consumables and commodities allows you to build a more long-lasting stream of income. If you are paid to refer another customer to a common product they will buy over and over again after they use it up, then you can create residual or passive wealth that does not shut off. In other words, you get paid for what you did instead of what you do. This is same mindset many business owners and entrepreneurs share.

Instead of looking at "price" as simply the money you pay at the store, "price" should reflect what you give up in return for what you get. Factors considered in the latter and more comprehensive definition include the time you spending acquiring the item, rebates paid back to you after you purchase the product/service, the shopping experience, and... perhaps most importantly what you could or would have been doing if you were not shopping for a product or service. For those who are familiar with Michael Pollan's arguments in The Omnivoire's Dilemma, he makes a similar point regarding the cost of food. The price tag does not represent the entirety of the price we pay for buying cheap industrial-produced food. In order to determine that, we also must take into account the health-effects of processed and treated food, the environmental impacts of how that food is produced and delivered, and the eventual burden that health-related problems will put on our health-care system.

Today, affiliate marketing offers companies and individuals the opportunity to earn money through a referral-based system. It wields arguably the most powerful forms of marketing, word-of-mouth. Despite the plethora of new online startups that attempt to break into affiliate marketing, the most successful companies are (and will continue to be) established brick & mortar stores that capitalize on the potential of affiliate marketing through the Internet. Physical companies such as Barnes & Nobles, Safeway, Office Depot, and Best Buy already have extensive distribution systems in place. New web-based businesses have to deal with the issue of building enough capital not only for startup costs, but also for laying in their distribution infrastructure before they can take advantage of the power of affiliate marketing.

Price is not defined by the money you pay, it is defined by what you give up in return for what you get.

Link: How to Measure Wheel Holes

2010-10-21T11:18:00.000-07:00

You can measure wheel holes by using the bolt pattern, which is the diameter of an imaginary circle formed by the centers of wheel lugs. It is also known as the bolt circle or pitch-circle diameter (PCD). Common bolt patterns are 4-, 5-, 6- or 8-lug holes. A bolt circle of 5x100 would indicate a 5-lug pattern on a circle with a diameter of 100mm. There are different methods of measuring PCD depending on how many lugs there are.

Read the rest of my piece over at eHow.

Link: How to Change Your Password in Oracle Database

2010-10-21T11:09:00.000-07:00

Oracle -- short for the Oracle Database -- is a relational database management system. It is well known for its high level of security and reliability, and its ability to run applications across multiple connected servers. Its data warehousing capabilities are designed to reduce IT costs through consolidation. An important element of the Oracle system is the ability to change passwords for additional security.

See the rest of my article over eHow.

Link: How to Install an Under the Counter Toaster Oven

2010-10-19T09:00:00.000-07:00

See my piece over at eHow.

Everybody loves a good depression

2010-10-18T06:04:00.000-07:00

Last week the New York Times had a chilling piece on the recession. As always, the article talks about the how the recession is the worst since the Great Depression. Let's be honest here, we are in a depression. It's just no one wants to call it that.

Of course, you will hear lots of economists scoff at that and say that it is a joke to compare our current situation to the depression. After all, during the Great Depression:

Unemployment rose to 25% (it's only about 10% now)
The stock market fell by 8,000 points (it's still floating above 10,000 points now)
GDP contracted by over 1/3 (GDP has only fallen a couple percent since 2008)

These are all valid points. But they are also irrelevant.

Less than a month before November's elections, the United States is mired in a grim New Normal that could last for years. That has policy makers, particularly theFederal Reserve, considering a range of ever more extreme measures, as noted in the minutes of its last meeting, released Tuesday. Call it recession or recovery, for tens of millions of Americans, there’s little difference.

The key line is right in that paragraph: "For tens of millions of Americans, there's little difference." For your average American, it does not matter much if GDP contracted 33% or 2%. Their situation is still poor. You can argue that if GDP contracted by the amount it did during the Great Depression then people would undoubtedly be worse off. And that's true too. But comparing the amount of GDP loss is like comparing donkeys and stallions. The economy and the global economic system are completely different today than in the 1920s-30s. It is not reasonable to expect American GDP to shrink in such a way as it did in the past because of how much our economic foundation has changed.

What matters to the average American person is whether or not they can find a source of income and make enough to live off of. If they don't have that it doesn't matter what the statistics are. If you have any doubt that we are in a recession, just keep this in mind:

At the current rate of job creation, the nation would need nine more years to recapture the jobs lost during the recession. And that doesn’t even account for five million or six million jobs needed in that time to keep pace with an expanding population. Even top Obama officials concede the unemployment rate could climb higher still.

Moreover:

Ford is expected to shut down one-third of its Lincoln dealerships.
Microsoft employees will need to start paying for health insurance in 2013.

Whatever party you support, whoever you voted for and will vote for, there is only so much that the government can do to impact your day-to-day living. In some cases what they do may have an overall negative effect on your life... like tax breaks to encourage people to buy something they couldn't have afforded and shouldn't have bought in the first place (that might be good for whatever marketing you bought from, but it isn't good for your personal finances)

If you really want something to change, make a change in your life. Stop relying on the government for everything, even if (perhaps especially if) the government might be responsible for a lot of what's wrong in your life. The government is a strong defender of people's rights, but it is a wasteful allocator of resources. More importantly, even before you can get to the allocation part, you have to go through the overly complicated and overly bureaucratic game that is politics. If you are counting on the government to save your life... well, keep counting.

Unity, Liberty, and Charity

2010-10-18T05:21:00.000-07:00

A few days ago while visiting Lily's school I came across an article in the magazine Restaurant Hospitality entitled "Is Your Professional Marriage Sinking?" The author quotes a line that his father once told him:

If you're going to get married, he said, pick a wife as if you were a policeman picking a partner because you're going to be heading down a lot of dark alleys in life and you want to make sure she has your back.

I began thinking of how many sinking domestic marriages there are in the US today. The divorce rate in America ranges somewhere between 40 and 70 percent, depending on the source. Marriages generally fail because they were not good to begin with, or because somewhere along the way something drives the couple apart.

Let's focus on the first of those, marriages that were bad from the start. As the quotation above so succinctly puts it, you want to be sure your partner-in-life has your back. The only way that can happen is if you and your partner have built a relationship grounded on strong and common values. Too often, people go into marriages against their better judgment (and perhaps against the judgment of their friends). Love and emotions can easily blind people from taking a hard look at their relationship. But there are a few important things to look at which will help guide people in determining whether they have a strong relationship.

Someone once told me that a good marriage follows this rule: "in essentials unity, in non-essentials liberty, and in all things charity." The wisdom of this is as profound as it is subtle. A couple must agree on their basic core values. These can be values such as the importance of family, how to raise children, and how you impact the lives of others. Non-essentials can be things like particular interests, social habits, or possibly political views. In these areas we are to grant the other person liberty, to agree to disagree. But in all things, we are to love, respect, and cherish one another.

No marriage can be ever be built on 100% understanding and agreement. Some will say that, statistically, the two factors that break marriage apart are finances and miscommunication. We can do something to secure the first one, but the second is something that is always a work-in-progress. Because people are not perfect, they are prone to hear what they want to hear and misunderstand what they want to misunderstand.

However, regardless of the arguments that you have with your spouse and the areas you might disagree in, you must have a shared set of core values that you both hold dear to your heart. A couple cannot flourish if they do not see eye-to-eye on something fundamental like family. Generally, disagreements on fundamental values lead to treatment that can be described as anything but charitable.

At the same time, you must also allow the other person to be him or herself in the non-essentials. These are areas that are not core to the relationship. Sometimes people have a very difficult time letting this one go (I know I have). They want to solve all the problems in the relationship so that there are no disagreements. That simply does not work. Sometimes there are things that you will not agree on, nor ever agree on. But those are not the things that define a couple's love for one another.

If you really expect your spouse to have your back, make sure you have a relationship founded on these principles. Otherwise, it will be at best a marriage where the couple makes themselves miserable more often than happy... and at worst a divorce.

Remember, "in all things charity."

The author closes with:

If you're involved in a bad professional marriage, nobody wins.

That is true of bad domestic marriages. Nobody wins: not the couple, not the friends or family involved, and certainly not the children whose lives will be changed forever.

Finding the Broken Butterfly in Resident Evil 4 Wii Edition

2010-10-15T13:00:00.000-07:00

I was talking with a friend the other day who said he wanted to know how to get the Broken Butterfly weapon in Resident Evil 4 on the Wii console. He told me I should write a blog post about it. So here it is!

I suppose this adds a little more spice to my blog now that I am writing about my childhood passion for video games... maybe not...

Overview

The Broken Butterfly is a powerful magnum revolver in Resident Evil 4 that you can acquire in one of two ways. The first is to simply buy it from the merchant at 38,000 pesetas. The second is to find the free one in a special locked treasure room. This room is in the hall south of the hedge maze. You first visit this area during Chapter 3. There are two doors: the left takes you up to the balcony and fountain before leading to the hedge maze; the right door is locked and requires another person (Ashley) to open it. The information below comes from my personal experience with game, but you can also f via an online walkthrough.

The Broken Butterfly... a true badass

How to get the free Broken Butterfly

Return to the locked door with Ashley when you begin Chapter 4. Start by heading west past the area with the merchant until you reach the room with the fallen cage.

Kill or avoid any infected creatures that have re-spawned, and head through the door to the south.

Do not move right after you exit through the door and are back in the hall south of the hedge maze. Kill the creatures on the ceiling using your rifle.

Go past the fountain towards the balcony and back down the steps, returning to the area with the two doors via the left one.

When you approach the locked door on the right Ashley will piggyback onto you in order to get over the wall. She will unlock it from the other side.

Enter the room and open the chest to get the Broken Butterfly. Remember to pick up the other free items.

Tips/more info

If you purchase the Broken Butterfly first and then take the one from the treasure room it will hold double the ammo. You cannot get double ammo by first picking the free one up and then trying to buy the same weapon. The merchant will not sell it to you.

The Broken Butterfly's special upgrade pushes the maximum firepower to 50.0, making it one of most powerful weapons in the game. The Killer 7 is a better weapon in terms of base stats. However, once the Broken Butterfly is fully powered through its special upgrade, it is much stronger, making it the preferred weapon for bosses. You can view the complete stats list for this and every other weapon here.

"All militaries need a straw man"

2010-10-12T09:53:00.000-07:00

In the New York Times today:

“All militaries need a straw man, a perceived enemy, for solidarity,” said Huang Jing, a scholar of China’s military and leadership at the National University of Singapore. “And as a young officer or soldier, you always take the strongest of straw men to maximize the effect. Chinese military men, from the soldiers and platoon captains all the way up to the army commanders, were always taught that America would be their enemy.”

That's encouraging... and just after Liu Xiaobo made it in to the news again. But China's too important to everything from Iran and North Korea to climate change and my backyard recycling, so let's not piss them off.

On the other hand, there is this...

Our trip to Green City Market

2010-10-11T18:21:00.000-07:00

Last weekend Lily and I took the opportunity to check out Chicago's Green City Market. This is Chicago’s only year-round farmers’ market. During the warm seasons it is held every Wednesday and Saturday at the south end of Lincoln Park. The market moves indoors when the cold and snow start hitting in full force.

Green City Market functions as a conduit connecting a number of local and sustainable farmers, producers, and chefs to the general public through educational programming and special events. We went around to all of the different vendors, but there were a few that stood out to us.

The first was Seedling Enterprises. Started by

Peter Klein, an MBA graduate from the University of Chicago, Seedling is based in South Haven, Michigan and distributes throughout Michigan and Illinois. They grow over 80 varieties of fruit and produce their own ciders and blends. When we visited them they were featuring a large selection of apples and a few kinds of apple cider, including goldendelicious and cinnamon spice. Their ciders are 100% natural and are cold pasteurized to maintain that old-fashioned taste.

Besides farmers' markets, Seedling also distributes to some small groceries and coffee shops, staying as local as possible, and makes direct deliveries . During the winter months they focus on preserves, driedfruits, and frozen cider. Seedling also produces some hybrid fruits such as pluots. It was a hot day when we were out at the market so Lily and I enjoyed one of their mixed berry smoothies.

We also visited Sunday Dinner, a local artisan and completely sustainable catering service, and Heartland Meats, a sustainable farm specializing in Piedmontese breed. Sunday Dinner combines their passion for local, seasonal, and sustainable products with their core values of friendship and family. Their emphasis on the sense of community that bonds people while eating is reflected in their commitment to provide highly personalized attention when catering special occasions.

Heartland Meats is well known for the extremely high quality of their meats, which often exceed the nutritional recommendations of the American Heart Association. Their cattle are raised without hormones or animal by-products. They have their own federally inspected processing plant which allows them full quality control through the production process.

And of course, not passing up a chance to learn more about the baking & pastry industry, Lily zeroed in on the Hoosier Mama Pie Company. The artisanal bakery has a wide range of fruit pies, chess pies, key lime pies, cream pies, and quiches. Although they have been selling at markets for several years, they have only had their own store since early 2009. The pies they sell at markets use ingredients purchased from other market vendors, demonstrating the value they place on local solidarity. Much to Lily's interest, Hoosier Mama also has a number of internships available for students.

Green City Market is a fantastic place to not only get high quality food, but also feel connected to the community. Back in Tacoma, farmers' market were one of our favorite places to go, and it was great to try our first one out here. We will definitely be making some return trips, if nothing else just for me to have another one of those mouth-watering hamburgers.

Here are some more pictures...

Considering hot yoga?

2010-10-11T07:16:00.000-07:00

If anyone has attempted to do yoga before, you are well aware that it offers an extremely challenging workout. A few months back my girlfriend Lily and I started practicing hot yoga. It has been an experience unlike anything I have been familiar with.

The place we started at was Hot Yoga Inc. in Federal Way. Although the place is only a small little studio, the teaching is superb. The standard class closely models Bikram Yoga - in which each class consists of a more-or-less set series of postures and breathing exercises. The heat also matches Bikram's instructions - 105 degrees at 40% humidity. However, the studio differs from traditional Bikram in the lack of a carpeted floor.

Each of the instructors was clearly an expert in technique. But more importantly, a few exceptional instructors were keenly focused on having on our mental, physical, and spiritual selves in alignment.

The heat and humidity of the room is enough to make you sweat, and you definitely begin pouring once the postures beg

in. This is as much a process of cleansing any bad elements from your body as it is a physical workout.

Since moving to Chicago, we have been on the hunt for a good hot yoga place. Unfortunately, many of the studios do not offer Bikram Yoga (or something close to it), which has been our personal favorite. Generally there is some combination of Bikram postures with more power or aerobic exercises. Vinyasa (Flow) Yoga seems to be more common out here. Currently I am trying out the yoga classes at Lifetime Fitness. They offer hot yoga twice a week, but the heat and humidity do not compare to what we had back in Washington State. Meanwhile, Lily continues to search for a studio more satisfactory to our tastes. She may be doing work-study at The Chicago School of Hot Yoga. I will post an update on that if/when it happens.

----------

For those who are interested in trying out yoga, I highly recommend it. Most websites will have a section for first time students and/or frequently asked questions.

Because meditation is a large part of yoga, etiquette is extremely important when taking group

classes. Here are some of the most important ones:

Arrive before class. Like all things in life, being punctual is a good thing. However, with yoga it is even more important as the beginning of class is used for clearing the mind and relaxing (generally through breathing exercises). If you come in late you will disrupt this peace. Some places may not even let you in.
Check to make sure there isn't still a class in the studio. The end of a class, just like the beginning, incorporates breathing exercises to help facilitate meditation and allow people to let their negative thoughts completely drift away before coming back to reality. Stumbling in before a class ends might snap them back to reality before they are ready and put them in a bad mood (which they might direct towards you...)
Be quiet during class, but ask for help (quietly) if you need it. Talking (i.e. chit-chat) is generally not permitted during class because it would be a distraction to others. That said, if you are not sure that you are doing a position correct - or if something hurts more than you think it should - ask the instructor for help. It is better for you to have someone show you the proper way to do something in order to get the most out of your time and avoid injuring yourself.
Don't go to class wearing any scented products. Perfumes, colognes, and oils that have strong smells can also be a distraction to everyone around you. Sometimes the high humidity and heat can amplify certain smells. It's best to simply use an unscented or light-scented deodorant.
Bring a towel (or two). If you are doing hot yoga with Bikram's heat specifications then you will want a towel to cover your mat and probably a small towel for your face. You will sweat a lot in the class so it is best to have a cover for your mat, unless you want to wash it every time. If you shower at the studio you might consider another towel since the mat cover will be drenched by the time you are done. So far, the hot yoga in Chicago has not been hot enough to really necessitate a towel. But if the class is set at 105 degrees and 40% humidity you will definitely regret not having one.

You have many reasons to start practicing hot yoga, the most important being to join the ranks of the Schwarzeneggers.

Link:10 Foods that Sound Healthy but aren't

2010-10-10T21:28:00.000-07:00

Very interesting article that I received a few days ago. It lists some foods that are commonly thought of as being healthy, but may actually have some downsides...

A lot of research on nutrition is debatable, but the article does make some very interesting points on some of the foods. The article mentions shakes as a good substitute a couple times, particularly whey protein. Of course whey is not without its own flaws...

The Culture Bridge

2010-10-06T04:32:00.000-07:00

Here is a fascinating article in the Asia Times on the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) attempt to draw Taiwan closer through cultural ties.

It is interesting to note that while China has absorbed much of Taiwan's popular culture in the past, the nature of the relationship on the ground is beginning to shift almost irrespective of the positions taken by the two governments. Because Taiwan was able to preserve many of the old Chinese traditions lost on the mainland during the Cultural Revolution, the island is looked at by many as a caretaker. Taiwan's use of traditional characters in contrast to the simplified version used in the PRC is one example. Of more interest is the initiative on the part of Chinese temple officials to reach out to Taiwan.

Temple officials in China's Fujian province have sought help from Taiwan's Da Jia Jenn Lann Temple in rebuilding their destroyed or neglected temples to honor the Fujian-born Goddess of the Sea, Mazu - and in reviving the tradition of honoring her. Immigrants from Fujian brought their faith in Mazu to Taiwan in the 17th century. Since then, Taiwanese people's worship of her has never waned, but only grown in scale and elaborateness.

Mazu is a powerful symbol in Chinese and Taiwanese culture, acting as a patron saint of many Southern Chinese and Southeast Asians. She not only is regarded as the protector of fishermen and sailors, but also hears concerns regarding farming, health, and relationships. Fujian province - where Mazu originates - was a source of many Chinese immigrants to Taiwan. This shared history and culture has helped foster cross-strait relations independent of the government initiatives.

The general trend of improving Taiwan-China relations is a good thing in and of itself, but there are valid concerns with Taiwan getting lost somewhere in all of this. Yet the growing links at the local level, such as those regarding the legacy of Mazu, are much more honest and less problematic. They are free of the level of bureaucracy found in government relations which are plagued by concerns of security and sovereignty.

While these local relations have the potential to influence the higher levels, they will be slow to develop and relatively limited in scope at first. With the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) now in effect, cross-strait relations are set to undergo some major changes. If China allows Taiwan to pursue free-trade agreements with other countries and does not simply flood the Taiwanese market with cheaper goods, then ECFA could work in tandem with local solidarity. If not, these local-level ties will not amount to much in the big picture.

Iranian Irony

2010-10-05T14:41:00.000-07:00

For a variety of reasons, it has been a while since I've written on this blog. I am just now getting back in the swing of things. A lot of changes have happened in my life, and yet some things in the world seem very much the same... let's take a look at one.

In the midst of the continued standoff between America and Iran, the editor of a Saudi London daily newspaper seems to think that the US is conspiring with Iran to allow them to take over Iraq in return for Iranian cooperation on the nuclear issue...

First, I'd like to ask the question of exactly what cooperation is being referenced here. To my knowledge, Iran has not yet agreed to halt the progression of their nuclear program. The latest round of dares from President Ahmadinejad do little to bolster my confidence in that area, regardless of how much for show these remarks are.

The article brings up the marginalization of over half of the population of Iraqis. There is some validity in this point as there have been problems with the displacement of Sunnis within the country. However, since the drawdown of American forces from Iraqi soil to about 50,000 troops, the Iraqi security forces have managed to accomplish quite an impressive feat by maintaining relative stability. The insurgency is nothing compared to what it once was, and the Iraqi forces - once incompetent and unreliable - are now handling the situation far better with the US acting as more in a support role. In a recent interview on NPR, Iraqi expert Michael Wahid Hannah of the Century Foundation had this to say:

I think looking at the Iraqi security forces and what they've been able to do since the draw-down of American forces we're at something like 50,000 troops now, in a support role - should be encouraging. I mean violence in Iraq is horrific but in a stable way, and that can only be said about Iraq. Compared to any other country the situation would be abysmal. But Iraq has seemed to cope, and the insurgency has been downgraded.

There are still many problems and challenges in the days ahead, with the current issue of putting together a governing coalition remaining at the forefront. Iraq is one of the youngest democracies in the world - certainly the most fragile one that the US is directly involved in. It is important to take a hard look at what is going on there to make sure that things do not go unnoticed. That said, it is unreasonable to expect there to be a nicely progressive trend in Iraqi democracy. It will take time to develop the institutions for a democracy to flourish. It will take even more time to internalize those institutions in Iraqi society.

Of course, no one doubts Iran is a regional power attempting to assert its hegemony by exercising its influence over Iraq. But to say that the US and Iran are cooperating with one another flies in the face of all evidence. Iranian support for Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr certainly does nothing to enhance American interests.

It also is crucial to note that the concentration of power by the Shiite bloc in Iraq does not imply support for Iran. In general, Iraqis have a much stronger identification with nationalism than with the Sunni-Shiite divide. This was made clear during the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s. Iran's leaders hoped that the Shiites of Iraq would join with their Shiite brothers to overthrow Saddam Hussein. Not only did this not happen, but the Iraqi Shiites actually fought even harder than most of their Sunni countrymen against the Iranians. Despite the brutal treatment of Shiites during the Hussein regime, they continue to feel a strong sense of nationalism. They did not struggle so much to attain liberation and autonomy simply to turn that over to Iran.

The Saudi London article probably should not be taken too seriously, but it is not the first time I have heard of such theories of this. It is important to be critical of motives and actions of governments and militaries. However, such analysis must be thoughtful and reasoned, not simply scrutiny for scrutiny's (read: pessimism's) sake.

On the personal side, my significant other and I are living in Chicago now, so there will be many exciting things on the home front in the coming future. Perhaps I will blog more about that soon.

Link: Political Shades of Purple

2009-11-10T22:51:00.000-08:00

Peter Callaghan has an excellent article over at the Tacoma News Tribune. The article critiques the reaction by many to the election results within Pierce County regarding Referendum 71 and I-1033. It's a superbly-written piece with an important message. I highly encourage everyone to check it out. Here is an excerpt:

I’ve been called on twice since the election to defend Pierce County.
Why, I was asked by radio interviewers in Seattle, is Pierce County so different? Why is it an outlier in the Puget Sound region? ........
Instead I questioned why insiders and newsies are so obsessed with county-by-county election results, as though states decide elections with some junior version of the Electoral College rather than majority rule.

Cambodia is Treading a Fine Line

2009-11-10T22:28:00.000-08:00

Former Thai PM Thaksin Shinawatra is stirring up a riot again. By request of the Cambodian PM Hun Sen, Thaksin has arrived in Phnom Penh in the capacity of an economic adviser. He is to address a seminar on November 12. Cambodia officials have made it clear that Thaksin is not to launch a political campaign against his antagonist Abhisit Vejjajiva (the current Thai PM).

Unfortunately, even with all that reassuring between such good friends, Abhisit isn't having such a good time with the idea of Hun Sen entertaining Thaksin - who was ousted in a military coup in 2006. Thailand has asked the Cambodian government to arrest and extradite Thaksin. The Thais have also recalled their envoy from Cambodia.

Cambodia is walking a fine line here. Elsewhere I've argued that one of Cambodia's strengths has been its ability to maintain fairly stable relations with its neighbors:

Outside its borders, Cambodia has been able to maintain fairly good relations with its neighboring states, especially considering the intensity of the social and political hostility felt by some Cambodians towards the Thai and Vietnamese. The conflict with Thailand over Preah Vihear last year was arguably its most serious border dispute in recent history. Although the anti-Thai riots of 2003 led to the damage of the Thai Embassy and some businesses, it is worth keeping in mind that such protests also occur in developed countries (for example, this year’s G20 protests in London which also wrecked havoc on many businesses). Certainly, tensions remain between Cambodia and its neighbors, especially Thailand. Yet Cambodia has been able to manage these relations quite well to prevent such tensions from exploding. Preah Vihear has left soldiers dead on both sides. But a look at other regions of the world where substantial preexisting tensions have not been managed effectively – such as sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East – reminds us of how the situation could be much worse.

Hosting Thaksin threatens to undermine this stability. Given Thailand's internal political problems, the government is extremely sensitive to any external actions that might exacerbate preexisting tensions among domestic factions. The Thai king's ailing health only contributes to the uncertainty and instability.

Cambodia should be very careful how it handles this situation. By hosting Thaksin Shinawatra in this official capacity, Hun Sen has placed his country in a minefield. One false step and the whole thing could blow up in everyone's face.

具有中國特色的社會主義...

2009-11-03T09:52:00.000-08:00

China's economic policy is officially described as "Socialism with Chinese Characteristics," or 具有中國特色的社會主義。

From UPI Asia today:

Since 1999, higher education has been transformed from an elite to a mass education system, with more than 20 percent of China’s high school graduates now being able to attend college. By comparison, the figure in 1980 was only 2 percent.

Students have to pay to receive a higher education, but sometimes tuition and fees are not affordable.

Socialism indeed...

Ethics of Firearms 101

2009-11-02T21:34:00.000-08:00

There's been a lot of buzz about the recently-formed "vigilante" patrols (now calling themselves "defenders") on the University of Washington Seattle campus. Several NPR programs, including The Conversation, have featured this topic. The use of weapons for self-defense - guns in particular - is a politically and socially sensitive subject for many Americans.

Under Washington State law, guns are prohibited from school under any circumstance. The students who have obtained concealed carry permits and started bringing their handguns to campus are generally past victims of assault, robbery, or another crime.

Stan Luong has been robbed four times, even pistol-whipped during one incident.

"I have stitches right here, a scar right there," Luong said of his past injuries.

The attacks prompted the University of Washington senior to obtain a concealed weapon license. Luong now takes his gun just about everywhere, including the Ave.

And Luong's not alone. He and other students have also organized armed patrols around the neighborhood.

Obviously not everyone agrees with this. Many have decried these efforts as extremely risky and dangerous to the safety of others. The definition of a vigilante is someone who takes the law into their own hands in order to (illegally) punish a criminal. That is certainly a running theme in stories like Spider-Man or Batman, where some figure constantly rebukes the hero for going above the law.

However, just like in those stories, the purpose of the vigilante is to help right the wrongs that exist in spite of the law. Certainly we don't want citizens becoming their own police officers, but it is important to consider the reality that students appear to be facing. In the past two months, there have been 10 assaults and robberies in the University District. By any criteria this is a serious situation. The question is whether or not guns are the answer.

Many police officers don't think so. Even many staunch supporters of gun rights - including one UW alum who spoke on today's program of The Conversation - believe that students should not be carrying weapons on campus. Their fears are certainly warranted. A gun is a tool that can be dangerous in the wrong hands or if used improperly for whatever reason. Here are a few of the objections to bringing guns to campus:

1. Drawing a gun can can rapidly escalate a situation even without it being fired

2. In any circumstance where a gun would need to be fired, the emotional state of the shooter diminishes the accuracy of the shot and puts others at risks

3. The previous point is compounded by the densely populated nature of a college campus

While these are very important things to consider, I'm not sure they are enough to unequivocally reject amending the law against weapons on campus. The first two points have to do with how well the individual knows how to use his or her weapon. These dangers can be reduced through training and education. All gun owners should have an awareness of when to draw (and when not to), as well as experience preparing to fire under pressure.

That's all well and good you say, except that accidents happen and people die or get injured. This is indeed true. Of course, it's also true in other aspects of life - for example driving. In an ideal world it would be great not to worry about self-defense. Unfortunately, there are real dangers, and in the case of UW these dangers seem to be increasing. Moreover, the reality is that students are already bringing weapons to campus in violation of the law. What this tells us is when people are under a concrete direct threat, the law is not a foolproof barrier. As long as students feel threatened enough to believe that they need a firearm to protect themselves, they will most likely continue to break this law.

At the same time, these students - like Stan Luong mentioned above - are training themselves to use their weapon. They are preparing themselves physically and mentally to be ready in case of an emergency. But for me, I will never know exactly how much they are training and exactly how ready they are (if you can ever truly be ready) for such an emergency. Naturally, that makes me uncomfortable.

So what's the solution here? Well, there isn't a clear one. The increased number of weapons in an area will of course increase the chances of an accident. Even if an area is irrefutably dangerous, it doesn't necessarily follow that more guns in the hands of potential victims will make the area safer. Obviously it would it best if the legal authorities were able to control the situation and reduce the violence. But it's important to recognize that law enforcement runs on limited resources just like everyone else. It is not reasonable to expect that they are able to prevent all crimes from occurring.

Given this, there comes a point when people no longer feel safe under the law. We've established that at this point it's likely they will acquire a firearm to defend themselves with even in violation of the law. Obviously we should take steps to improve the resources of law enforcement so that they can resolve these issues. However, it's also important that we not categorically reject any cases where self-defense with a gun becomes an issue. It is important that education about and training with firearms is encouraged so that people who do decide to carry concealed weapons know how (and when) to use them. Simply ignoring the reality will only produce lots of irresponsible gun owners.

The third point (from before) about the dense population of the campus is not really a valid critique. Or at least, this cannot be applied here without contradicting the usage of firearms in densely populated city centers (or other non-campus areas). Regardless of the density or number of people, the main issue is still the manner in which firearms are used - which, as already discussed, is a function of training, experience, and knowledge.

If nothing else, I hope that what's happening will make more people respect a gun. Like irresponsible drivers, there are too many people out there who treat the tool like a toy. Whatever your views about guns are, I don't think anybody would argue that IF you are going to carry a gun, a solid understanding and education beats lack thereof any day.

Subliminal Message

2009-11-01T19:59:00.000-08:00

This is pretty awesome. It must be the T-800 inside him reaching out.

Link: Campfire Discussion at the Oil drum

2009-09-12T17:36:00.001-07:00

This excellent "mock press conference" features some well-known figures and explores a variety of complex and crucial topics to our future: energy depletion v. technology innovation, sustainable growth, the role of internet media, and more. I highly encourage people to check it out.

As a political science major the passage below is a particular favorite of mine:

Daniel Yergin: There are only 2 things certain in life: death and EROI. These resource cornucopians have never grasped that the major obstacle to the development of new natural capital is not geology or ecology but what happens above ground: international affairs, politics, investment and technology.

EROI stands for energy return on investment. This is essentially the ratio of energy recovered to energy used. It's a critical component to the steady state economy. For more information see this.

Perhaps Thailand isn't so Dissimilar from Burma...

2009-08-14T11:26:00.000-07:00

Following the recent verdict passed down on Aung San Suu Kyi outraging many people, it is interesting to look at the relationship between Thailand and Myanmar. Although Thailand has experienced extensive economic development - particularly in its urban centers - its political stability and the status of democracy are tenuous and fragile. UPI Asia today had a piece on the lack of tolerance for some ideals essential to democracy - free speech, debate, and openness to foreign ideas.

The imposed social conventions inhibit legitimate free inquiry and restrict people’s right to exercise nonconformity, even in such areas as the academic sector. Academics are rightfully fearful of exploring taboo subject areas because they have seen what happens to their peers when valor gets the better part of discretion.

Some time ago, for example, a Thai university professor posed several questions to his students in a written examination asking what they felt the role of the monarchy was and what it should be in a democratic form of government. A fellow academic turned the professor in to the police, who then demanded to see the questions as well as all the answers from the students. Fortunately the professor refused to supply the requested answers, taking a brave position for himself and protecting his students at the same time.

It's also enligthening to look at the position of Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva regarding Myanmar.

Recently, just after democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi was given another 18 months of house arrest by the military junta in Burma, Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva addressed the media on the issue, helping to insure that non-democratic institutions in Burma and Thailand remain alive and well. He hemmed and hawed about the wrongfulness of the sentencing, instead choosing to dawdle on how important relations were between the two very close friendly neighboring countries, Thailand and Burma, and how the Burmese junta should be given every possible opportunity to pursue its difficult trek toward its “roadmap to democracy.”

Anyone with half a brain can see that Myanmar has no "roadmap to democracy." The country remains one of the most brutal military regimes in the world and is showing no signs of even slightly easing up on its authoritarianism, much less moving towards democratization. This is a government which actively engages in "war slavery" by impressing its population and forcing them into heavy manual labor for military projects. No one knows for sure exactly how many child soldiers comprise the Burmese armed forces.

Thailand's relationship with Myanmar says more about the state and prospects for democracy in the former rather than any optimism of positive reform in the latter. Today's piece closes nicely with a good summary of the reality between the two countries:

One may wonder why the Thai government and politicians are so tolerant of the Burmese dictatorship. But the wondering stops when one considers what the power-holders in both countries have to lose should democracy really come to pass. This harsh reality is what cements Thailand and Burma more closely than any professed regional brotherly love.

The Quarterlife Crisis

2009-08-12T23:32:00.001-07:00

A friend of mine sent me this earlier in the week. It's a great article with lots of nice and witty insights. Here's the first paragraph below.

Imagine a day in the life of a couple you probably know. He’s 27 years old, and she’s 26. They wake up beside each other in his downtown bachelor apartment and have sex that neither of them particularly enjoys. They’ve been sort-of dating for a while now, but they’re not willing to commit to each other: he likes her, but doesn’t know if he always will. She can’t decide if she likes him more or less than the other two guys she’s sleeping with.

With a beginning like that how could you not want to read more?

Economics, Environment, Evidence

2009-08-12T16:43:00.000-07:00

Dan Drezner had an interesting point to make about a recent New York Times op-ed on the failings of the GDP measure. Although Drezner goes a little overboard on the sarcasm (nothing new), he does rightly emphasize the lack of evidence in the op-ed's argument. It's well recognized that GDP is simply a measure of economic welfare (represented by growth) and not a true measure of total welfare. But of course calling for major and fundamental changes in policy requires more than just a logical statement; it also requires solid evidence indicating that theoretical knowledge is sound.

So here's some evidence.

Pierce County is spending more than $1 million to address persistent flooding problems on 90th Street East at Canyon Road.

This is relevant because in January the road sustained $1 million in damage due to flooding. Farming practices dating back several decades has choked Canyon Creek and led to regular water backups. Without the flow from the creek, the water has nowhere to go and spills onto the streets. This has gone on for years and has an adverse impact on the throughfare and the residents who use it.

The bigger issue is that of natural capital and the services which ecosystems provide. These are a number of these services, including wetlands (or water flow) providing natural flood protection, water filters through forests, attracting tourist and recreation, and leisure value. The problem is that some activities designed to improve economic growth or income - in this case the farming techniques - destroy ecosystems and eliminate the services they provide. While there are direct impacts - in this case the increased flooding - environmental damage also carries with it the extra cost of any repair measures.

In response to this awareness, new fields and studies are emerging. One example is the Tacoma-based Earth Economics, which follows the principles of ecological economics and, among other things, works to "put a price tag" on ecosystems such as Puget Sound. People are certainly correct to emphasize evidence before making any fundamental changes to our policies. Earth Economics and ecological economics provide answers to this challenge of evidence.

Another recent post at The Energy Collective also sums up the traditional debate of Economy vs. Ecology. I encourage you to check it out.

Common Sense has its Uses

2009-08-10T21:05:00.000-07:00

From the BBC, about the American who swam across the lake of the home/prison of Aung San Suu Ki and stayed with her for two nights:

Reports say her American co-defendant was discharged from hospital on Monday night after a week of treatment for epileptic seizures...

Staff at the Rangoon hospital where Mr Yettaw was treated said his condition had improved and he was eating after having fasted for weeks.
Mr Yettaw is believed to have epilepsy, diabetes and post-traumatic stress disorder.

Now call me crazy, but with a medical background like this, it seems prudent to not visit someone under house arrest by one of the most oppresive and brutal regimes currently in existence...

N. 21 Street...

2009-08-10T09:42:00.000-07:00

http://www.thenewstribune.com/news/local/story/839116.html

I would've thought that this change on N. 21 Street was obvious. Maybe not.

Great Links: Challenging some Conventional Norms

2009-08-10T09:40:00.001-07:00

Organic food is not nutritionally better (duh) than regular food

http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/20090805/sc_livescience/organicvslocalwhichfoodisbest

Cooking and eating green isn't always expensive

http://www.seriouseats.com/2009/08/serious-green-top-10-cheap-and-green-kitchen-tips.html

Good 'ol TR: the pioneer environmentalist...

http://www.seattlepi.com/connelly/408988_joel05.html?source=rss

Check them out

Is this a Contradiction?

2009-08-05T22:21:00.000-07:00

The European Union has re-established its lead over the United States in the use of high-speed computer connections, making the Continent "the world leader in broadband Internet," the European Commission said on Tuesday.

One third of Europeans have never used the net, according to an EU report.

Well, not really a contradiction, but it is interesting to see these two together. I wonder if broadband penetration and internet usage are positive correlated.

The State of the Korean Conflict

2009-08-05T21:35:00.000-07:00

Following former President Clinton's success in securing the release of the two American journalists detained in North Korea, commentators have wasted no time in predicting how Clinton's heroism will impact the nuclear diplomatic game (also see Dan Drezner's remarks for a breath of ...... air). While this little stunt may complicate the public face of negotiations, I'm inclined to think that it will make no significant difference to the outcome.

An interesting op-ed in the New York Times a few days compared and contrasted the current situation to 1994. The basic jist is that in 1994 the US was seriously prepared to attack North Korea. On the other hand, South Korea's stance remains the same. Now, as then, the South dislikes the North but fears the destruction that could be caused by too great a provocation. What South Korea should realize is that the status quo is not in any way sustainable. The only slightly positive thing about the North is the political stability which prevents its internal problems from spilling over onto all of its neighbors. Each time the leadership plays Chicken with major players of the international community it threatens this stability. Even discounting this, such a regime cannot continue indefinitely in such isoloation. Even if there is never a reunification of the Korean peninsula, there will need to be increasingly greater interaction in the coming years to prevent the area from degenerating into chaos.

In the half-century since the end of the Korean War, the two countries have diverged dramatically. The most obvious differences are economic development, standard of living, international recognition, etc. But there are now also enormous gaps in language and culture, so much so that some people do not even consider the other side to be truly Korean. This gap will only widen with time. The longer the status quo goes on, the more difficult it will be to put the pieces back together.

South Korea should be taking more active steps to foster a reintegration, if possible, or at least more reapproachment. President Lee's attitude and policies have worked mostly to undermine the Sunshine Policy of the past. Of course, the North's efforts at proliferation certainly haven't helped at all. This is espeically frustrating because, ironically, our timid response to the North's recent provocations help to bolster South Korea's complacency.

On E-IR, someone wrote about withdrawing from Korea. I doubt this would ever happen, but let's suppose it does. Do you really think South Korea on its own would have the capacity to deal (in any sense of the word) with its not-so-friendly neighbor? Before talking about withdrawing from this area, perhaps its prudent to consider the disastrous consequences of doing so before this conflict reaches a firm resolution.

Back in the US

2009-07-23T17:49:00.000-07:00

Hello all. I apologize for the dearth of posts since June. During most of my time in China I was unable to access several of my online media outlets (including Blogger) due to the recent unrest in Xinjiang province.

I am back in the US and hope to resume writing shortly. In the meantime here are a couple pieces of mine up on other sites that may be of interest.

What's Independence for Anyway? - This is a short essay discussing claims of self-determination and sovereignty.

Underdog Emerging: Cambodia's Development in the 21st Century - Just what it says. This was actually finished back in June but recently published on E-IR.

I highly recommend checking out other works on both of these websites. The Melon is run primarily by my friend Elliot Trotter (Electric Elliot) and has original pieces on a variety of topics. Many of the writers on this site are current or former University of Puget Sound students. E-IR is managed by small group of graduate students in the UK and includes works by writers from all over the world (including experts from both academic and industry fields). Recently my former classmate Jordan Barber submitted an essay to them. You can read it here.

Link: Tacoma's "Super"-intendent

2009-06-25T05:49:00.000-07:00

The Tacoma News Tribune ran this piece on the first evaluation of Art Jarvis, the superintendent of Tacoma schools. I haven't followed his performance as much as I would have liked (partly since I'm out of the country) but the article mentions rather stellar praise for Mr. Jarvis. I'm glad we have him in this important role.

Tacoma schools Superintendent Art Jarvis received his first annual performance evaluation this week, scoring near-perfect marks for his financial leadership in tough economic times.

In all other areas, board members agreed Jarvis met or exceeded expectations – notably in his dealings with the community and with school district staff, an area that vexed his predecessor, Charlie Milligan...

Meanwhile, board members seemed to agree that Jarvis worked hard to forge relationships in the community.

"Great with people," Dugan wrote in his evaluation of the superintendent. "Well versed and sensitive and compassionate while always focused."

Board member Connie Rickman wrote that Jarvis went above and beyond when it came to reaching out to community groups, “which makes his day extraordinarily long.”

Board members also praised Jarvis for implementing new programs such as all-day kindergarten, the Lincoln Center project at Lincoln High School and the Science and Math Institute (SAMI), a specialty high school scheduled to open this fall on the grounds of Point Defiance Park.

"He works to bring about needed change," Golding wrote. “SAMI, All Day Kindergarten and Lincoln Center are examples of the ‘new territory’ in our students’ world.”

Links: Quantitative Evidence of Iran's Election Fraud

2009-06-21T18:43:00.000-07:00

For all those number crunchers out there, via The Monkey Cage

Several quantitative studies suggest manipulation by the Iranian government.

Walter Mebane, University of Michigan (updated June 20): http://www-personal.umich.edu/~wmebane/note19jun2009.pdf

Bernd Berber and Alexandra Scacco, Columbia: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/20/AR2009062000004.html?hpid=opinionsbox1 (province data); http://www.themonkeycage.org/2009/06/combining_findings_at_the_prov.html#comments (preliminary aggregation of province and county data)

The Mystery Behind the Tragedy

2009-06-19T06:40:00.001-07:00

Even when it's not funny... it's funny

http://www.theonion.com/content/news/investigators_determine_air_france?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Link: Iranian Paradigm Shift

2009-06-16T07:53:00.000-07:00

In my recent pieces on the Iranian election, I commented that a failure of the opposition to secure victory would be a validation of the same old story of rigging and manipulation that the regime has employed in the past. But after some more reading and reflection, I realize I may have downplayed how far the government went (and how obvious they were about it). My previous writing underestimated the scale of the change that may be in store for the country. Luckily Afshin Shahi (over at e-IR) has avoided my folly in his take on what the election means for the Iranian state and society. It's a good and thoughtful piece.

My heart and thoughts are with you Iran.

Iran's Election and the North Korean Conflict

2009-06-14T18:25:00.000-07:00

With all the writing I've been doing on the recent Iranian election giving Mahmoud Ahmadinejad another shot at the presidency of the Islamic Republic, I thought I'd offer a brief look at the impact this has on the US' dealings with North Korea. In recent days, the rogue nation has once agained vowed to move foward with its production of nuclear weapons and warned of war with South Korea and any other states that took part in continued UN sanctions.

Some have repeatedly called for an unambiguous and decisive move by the Obama administration. Precisely because the administration is so young, it is crucial that the president demonstrate his foreign policy chops and set a precedent for the way in which he will respond to future threats. Within the North Korean issue this is important as the North Koreans have proven time and time again (with the Clinton and Bush administrations) that they are among the world's greatest blackmailers. Negotiations have continually awarded concessions to North Korea only to see the isolated nation later renege on its word and resume testing/development of its nuclear weapons program.

While North Korea has virtually no legitimacy in the eyes of the international community, its program remains mostly intact and the regime possesses enough guts to fire missiles in complete defiance of international law. The fact that it is such an outlier in the international community has its pros and cons. On the one hand, North Korea has a very tenuous position - most countries wouldn't bat an eye if the US or other powers launched an attack (for sure in response to crossing a line and potentially even a preemptive one) to destroy or diminsh NK's nuclear program. On the other hand, it has nothing to lose from violating international law and thus no compunctions about launching missiles. This makes it dangerous and unpredictable force to be worried about.

The outcome of the Iranian election makes Obama's handling of NK even more critical. With Ahmadinejad's reelection, the nuclear proliferation issue will remain as acute as ever, potentially growing more serious. This is not to say that Mousavi would have caved into a settlement (especially since Khameni still retains final say over such matters). But with Mousavi in power, a settlement would likely have been easier to reach. Now Ahmadinejad and Guardian Council will be closely watching America's performance in dealing with NK. If Obama is able to make a decisive response here, it will likely demonstrate to Iran that this administration will pursue a steady and robust course of action in dealing with proliferation more generally. Likewise, should Obama fail to handle NK properly, the US' bargaining currency with Iran will diminish.

Iran will probably also face pressure from its Arab neighbors which could change the bargaining dynamic in the region. But the US will almost certainly remain the key player in dealing with Iran's nuclear program. Let's hope that Obama has a strong hand to play when that game comes around.

Democracy - Iranian Style

2009-06-13T19:43:00.000-07:00

A few days ago I responded to Marc Lynch's analysis of a potential Ahmadinejad victory in Iran. Now that portent has come true and today's IHT article paints a vivid picture of the backdrop against which his victory occurred.

The Interior Ministry said Saturday afternoon that Mr. Ahmadinejad had won 62.6 percent of the vote, with Mir Hussein Moussavi, the top challenger, taking just under 34 percent. Turnout was a record 85 percent.

Mr. Moussavi, a former prime minister who had promised to reverse Mr. Ahmadinejad’s hard-line policies, declared himself the winner by a wide margin Friday night, charged widespread election irregularities and called on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, to intervene. The landslide victory for Mr. Ahmadinejad, an intensely divisive figure here and abroad, came as a powerful shock to opposition supporters, who had cited polls showing that Mr. Moussavi had a strong lead in the final days of the campaign.

The government claims that Ahmadinejad won a majority of support throughout the country as a whole - and that Mousavi's predicted victory was a result of focusing on Tehran. Simply put, this is blatantly a (poor) cover-up of an obviously rigged election. Moreover, the reaction of the government to the ensuing riots hardly indicates a democratic process that reflects the will of the people.

Witnesses reported that at least one person had been shot dead in clashes with the police in Vanak Square in Tehran. Smoke from burning vehicles and tires hung over the city late Saturday.

Also, from the Al-Jazeera piece.

Fearing the protests might spread, authorities blocked access to some news websites and Facebook, the social networking site.

"Text messaging has been closed all day and now its very difficult to even get a mobile telephone line," our correspondent said...

Mousavi said that members of his election headquarters had been beaten "with batons, wooden sticks and electrical rods".

I hope that Iran's neighbors and adversaries (potential and actual) take notice of these riots and avoid blaming the election outcome on the Iranian people.

Pictures from Thailand

2009-06-12T02:27:00.000-07:00

Will an Ahmadinejad Victory Reflect the Will of the People?

2009-06-12T00:10:00.000-07:00

Marc Lynch posted some of his thoughts a few days ago on Iran's presidential election. Specifically, he focuses on the impact that Mousavi's victory may have on Iran's soft power and regional relations. Lynch contends that a "Mousavi Effect" could lead to reapproachment with Arabs and potentially free Iranian domestic politics from the old camps of "reformists, moderates, and hard-liners." What's most interesting to me is the last paragraph where predicts the fallout from Ahmedinejad prevailing.

Of course, if Ahmedenejad wins, the reverse effect may take hold. When George W. Bush defeated John Kerry in 2004, a very wide swathe of Arab public opinion concluded that this meant that the American people really did bear responsibility for Bush's unpopular policies. If the U.S. is really a democracy, they asked, then didn't Bush's victory mean that his war on terror and invasion of Iraq really did represent the American popular will? If Ahmedenejad wins, the same dynamic may hit Iran in the Arab world: the Iranian people had the chance to correct their policies, and chose to continue as they were. That might lead to a hardening and deepening of anti-Iranian sentiment, at least among elites and leaders.

It is interesting that Lynch choose to draw this parallel considering the significant differences that exist between the US and Iranian electoral system. While no one would claim that the US has a perfectly fair method of electing its leader, it is a far cry from the direct manipulation that the Iranian leadership has. First of all, the field of candidates is vetted by the Council of Guardians so that only those approved by the leadership may enter the race. There is also little doubt that the government distorts the voting results.

The 2004 match-up between Bush and Kerry was devoid of the same features that make Iran barely a pseudo-democracy. There was much stronger case to be made for anti-American sentiment in the wake of this election because the majority did vote for Bush's second term - it could thus be asserted that Bush's victory reflected the will of the American people. If Ahmadinejad wins again, this by no means implies the same of the Iranian people. His victory may be due to a number of factors independent of what the people truly desire.

Of course, in politics perception generally trumps truth. Arabs might care less about the reasons behind Ahmadinejad's reelection and more about the simple fact that he remains president. If they react accordingly, then it will not matter at all if the election outcome is a result of undemocractic tampering or actually the wishes of the common Iranian. Still, I would hope people recognize that a failure of the reformist camp does not equate with mass support for the conservative hard-line factions.

Pictures from Cambodia 2

2009-06-05T07:00:00.000-07:00

Here are some more pictures.

Pictures from Cambodia

2009-05-28T00:56:00.000-07:00

I haven't had regular access to a fast internet service so I've been unable to blog or post pictures. I don't think I'll get an opportunity to write anything substantial until I reach Taiwan, but here are some images from the last week or so. I'll try to post another batch of pictures next week.

Kitty Carrier

2009-05-16T19:15:00.000-07:00

I tried to take Patch with me when I went out this morning. She wasn't too pleased. Unfortunately, Patch was moving her head too much in the last one so the picture came out blurry (otherwise it would've been a perfect shot).

Holy Mission

2009-05-15T18:32:00.000-07:00

I guess the Egyptian government figured it needed to come up with a better reason than swine flu for slaughtering their pigs.

According to a May 9, 2009 report in the Jordanian Arabic-language news website www.factjo.com, the superintendent of da'wa affairs at the Egyptian Ministry of Religious Endowments, Sheikh Ahmad 'Ali 'Othman, has issued a fatwa stating that all pigs living today are descended from Jews and must therefore be slaughtered.
According to the website, Sheikh 'Othman states in his fatwa that all pigs are descended from the Jews whom Allah transformed into apes, swine and worshippers of Satan, and must therefore be slaughtered. He bases this on Koran 5:60: "Shall I point out to you something much worse than this, [as judged] by the treatment it received from Allah? Those who incurred the curse of Allah and His wrath, those of whom some He transformed into apes and swine, those who worshipped Satan - these are [many times] worse in rank, and far more astray from the even path!"

The Evolutionary Science of News

2009-05-12T21:54:00.001-07:00

Last week over at The Melon, my friend and old classmate Elliot Trotter wrote an interesting piece on how he views the evolution of media. In a nutshell, FOX News embodies an emerging new type of media, one that represents a certain perspective (in this case America's conservative wing). Although grossly biased and slanted to the right, Elliot comments that a "fair and balanced" state will result from a counter-balancing perspective, meaning that something akin to FOX should emerge on the opposite side of the spectrum. He considers The Daily Show and The Colbert Report as potential candidates for this role.

Given most people's vehemently negative attitude towards FOX, this is a very interesting and rather fresh perspective on how media is changing. However, it is incorrect to assert that mainstream media has only figured out that entertainment sells better than news in the last few years. While things may have become more slighted in recent years (a claim that is by no means beyond dispute), it is undeniable that the disproportionate fixation on entertainment value - usually represented by "blood and guts" aspects of news stories or some form of dramatized human suffering - is very much a product of the modern communications revolution. The first mass communications revolution is usually considered to be the invention of the steam-powered printing press in 1830 which allowed news to be much more timely. Within a few years the first mass-circulation newspaper was being produced in the US.

The second great revolution - which initiated the shift from news to "infotainment" - began in 1968 when the US launched the first television satellite. With this technology, stories could be transmitted from local studios back to network news headquarters for editing and broadcast far more rapidly than previously possible. This was further supplemented by three critical pieces of TV equipment available by the early 1970s: the Minicam (a portable, lightweight video camera), a battery-powered video recorder (also portable), and the time-base corrector (by which video footage was converted into transmittable output to be broadcast over the airwaves). With this combination, live TV could be made directly from remote locations and transmitted instantaneously into the homes of viewers across the globe.

These advancements had consequences for the content of the news. The ability to beam a breaking story live gave rise to intense competition among rival networks to "scoop" one another. There were basically two ways to do this: being the first on the scene or being the first to report some hitherto undisclosed information. Although the first is perhaps the most sought-after prize and honor of journalism, it is also inherently evanescent as an advantage. Since the dawn of modern communications, the trick to keeping ratings up has been not-so-much capturing attention by breaking a story, by rather holding it with equally gripping follow-up reports.

The result has been a world of sound bites and "spin." Dramatic footage and pointed phrases specifically designed to grab viewers' attention have gradually displaced detailed analysis (or at least the former has become more synonymous with "good journalism"). The concrete effects were easy enough to see. Eleanor Randolph of the Washington Post pointed out in 1985 that the mainstream news coverage of the TWA Flight 847 hijacking was driven purely by a rush for ratings, at the detriment of important substantive coverage. As TV increasingly became the primary source of news for most Americans, the relevance of this bias correspondingly became more influential.

To some degree, the shift towards "infotainment" is independent of increased politicization of news networks. There are arguments that the US as a whole has become more divided along party lines. This may or may not be true since it is hard to disaggregate the reality from the filter of the media where most people get their information. However, especially in the last decade or so, major news networks have gradually recognized that politicization is a good source of high ratings. While many people roll their eyes when they hear Al Franken or Sean Hannity, it is important to realize that there are many others who flourish listening to these programs. Most people prefer to listen to commentators and news reporting that more-or-less validates their already established viewpoints. It is much rarer to find someone sincerely open to a variety of different opinions.

This last point is somewhat along the lines of what Elliot is identifying in the emerging new media: news sources that embody particular values and principles. Elliot argues that counter-balancing from the liberal side of the spectrum will establish "fair and balanced" amongst a variety of biased sources because each side will be roughly equal in their bias to the left or right. This is problematic for a couple reasons. First, it is improbable that most programs will accurately embody a person's entire belief set. There are many people in the US who have a variety of views that do not neatly fall under ideological (much less party) lines. Of course there are those who are extremely liberal or conservative - and it is these people, not the moderates or those with mixed views - that tend to capture more nationwide media attention.

Second, the notion of biased networks balancing against one another places too much emphasis on the capacity of conventional news programs to maintain themselves in the future. Personally, I think that most signs are pointing to a decline in major centralized news agencies. Internet-based and open-source resources are revolutionizing the ability for broad mass-movements to communicate, inform, and organize. This is clear in the variety of effects such technology has had on protests in New Zealand, Moldova, Thailand, and at the G20 summit in London. The impact is particularly pronounced in Egypt where Facebook, Twitter, Flickr, and other online networking mediums were used in organizing the food riots last year and establishing the April 6th Youth Movement (their blog can be viewed here). Newspapers, radio, and TV will remain important sources of news for many people. But since their traditional territorial power is being slowly eroded by these new sources of information, it is difficult to imagine this scenario of biased counter-balancing news networks being the embodiment of new media.

This emerging trend may, however, become more pronounced before it sputters out. But that it is happening is a different issue from whether or not it is desirable. For me, the role of journalism and the news has always been to attempt to report the truth as objectively as possible - making this new media (as Elliot envisions it) an unwanted development. Of course there has always been, and will always be, bias in reporting. But Elliot's conceptualization is purposely biased to the preferences of a particularly viewership. Such flagrant disregard for any standard of objective reporting is not only detrimental to the quality of journalism - which has already suffered in the mainstream due to the impacts of the communications revolution - but also contrary to any notion of a greater public good. A polarized arena of news agencies split along ideological lines and competing over who can "scoop" one another the best will only serve to divide the country.

It may be that the supposed fracturing of American society along political lines is more a result of media portrayal. Unfortunately, it's hard to see how this imagined politicization would not become a clear reality should new media be truly defined by ideological media wars.

Technology Isn't Always Green

2009-05-12T20:52:00.000-07:00

It's interesting to watch businesses, government, and universities (including mine) talk about sustainability by cutting paper and moving online. Unfortunately, things are not always so simple. Global information and communication technologies (ICTs) - the infrastructure by which people can store things online, send emails, blog, and much more - accounts for about 2% of CO2 emissions (and anywhere from 1.2-3.0% of total power consumption in the US). This puts the ICTs on par with the aviation industry in terms of total contribution to carbon dioxide.

The problem is that ICTs primarily consume the highest quality of energy - electricity. This is also the sector's number one cost, accounting for up to 20% of the operating costs for data centers. There tends to be significant waste in most standard data center designs. The average server load is 10-15% of total utilization, and for many servers, efficiency falls around 65% at 20% utilization - decreasing as utilization falls. Since servers operate at a little above half their total efficiency on average, nearly half of the power consumed is wasted.

There are strategies around these problems. Different metrics such as PUE (power usage effectiveness), TCE (technology carbon efficiency), and DCP (data center productivity) can be applied at the facility-scale to monitor and report the performance of specific equipment. This allows operators to see exactly what parts of the data center are operating efficiently, as opposed to a block sum of the entire facility. With this knowledge, managers are much better equipped to make precise and strategic changes that increase efficiency and minimize loss. Another option for reducing emissions is the consolidation of physical servers through virtualization. This eliminates redundancy - some estimate that 10-30% of servers are dead weight - and increases dynamic adaptability to workload varience. Essentially, it means performing the same tasks with fewer machines by placing and migrating workloads across a pool of server resources. Requests can then be prioritized and intelligently routed to respond to the most critical applications and users.

On a related note, McAfee just released a report on the ecological footprint of spam: electricity consumption equivalent 2.4 million homes and greenhouse gas emissions equivalent to 3.1 million passenger cars.

It's worth keeping in mind that being online and being green are not always the same.

The New Police State

2009-05-12T20:17:00.000-07:00

(via Slashdot)

Cryptohippie recently released a report depicting the modern electronic police state. In it they rank 52 countries in terms of how much they fit this epitome. Interesting read, although as noted on Slashdot it would have been nice to see their methodology. The top 10 countries are:

1. China
2. North Korea
3. Belarus
4. Russia
5. United Kingdom (England & Wales)
6. United States
7. Singapore
8. Israel
9. France
10. Germany

Some are no surprise. Number 5 recalls some images of V for Vendetta. France and Germany ranking so high - especially above Malaysia (11) - is a bit surprising. I also would have expected Spain to be higher than it was (43) after the Madrid train bombings in 2004. The report didn't evaluate Myanmar (Burma) which would have been interesting since it was just "condemned as having the worst abuses in internet rights" (a good piece from March compares the prosecution of cyber-thought crime in Thailand and Myanmar).

Review of Seattle Opera '08-09

2009-05-10T22:41:00.000-07:00

Now that I've seen this year's last opera, I thought I would write some thoughts about the season. It's been a interesting line-up: a few standards thrown in with some quite unusual works. Save one, every opera this year has been a tragedy. Only the final one, Mozart's Marriage of Figaro, was comic opera - which made last night somewhat refreshing. Below I rank the operas in rough ascending order of how much I enjoyed them and provide some comments on each.

6. The Pearl Fishers (Georges Bizet)
This was an interesting work. I had never heard of it before this year. The Pearl Fishers lacks the distinctive melodies and stylistic features that characterize its much-loved and mainstream counterpart Carmen. Unlike the latter, in which the primary role is sung by a mezzo, The Pearl Fishers really casts the spotlight on the lead tenor and baritone. Leila - the main soprano, head priest, and love interest of both male leads - is also central the storyline, but I was rather disappointed in the performance of her role. Her singing was decent but ruined by the loud breath interruptions. The best aspect about this production was the special effects. The simulation of water and the floating/flying/swimming effects through transparent curtains and wires were all very eloquent. As far as the music goes, it was only nice.

5. Aida (Giuseppe Verdi)
This is a favorite among opera-goers but I wasn't blown away by the production. The music was overall very good. It's Verdi so of course it was very grand and dramatic (though lacking the rumored live elephant scene). For the most part the singing was solid. All the solo performances and the supporting choir left little to be desired. But nothing really stood out and grabbed me. The drama was effectively conveyed but not in a manner that was stirring. With the exception of Radames' death tomb, I thought all the sets were pretty corny looking. I understand that the so-called "orientalism" employed by Verdi was superficial, but some the sets made even the standard seem authentic. Still, it was overall an enjoyable performance... if a little long.

4. Bluebeard's Castle (Béla Bartók)
The set was really awesome. The story essentially consists of Judith, the female lead, opening up each of the seven chambers inside Bluebeard's Castle. You don't actually get to see inside of the rooms, but you do see light and environmental effects from each of them, all of which were done very well. This is only a two-person show and both performances were very impressive. Moreover, this work was paired with Schöenberg's Erwartung (see below) in a double bill production originally conceived in Canada. In a nice contrast to most opera, Bluebeard's Castle is fairly short, lasting only about an hour. The different orchestral accompaniments to each room effectively and intriguingly lead towards the climax, when we discover the tragic fate of Bluebeard's past wives that inevitably befalls Judith.

3. Erwartung (Arnold Schöenberg)
Even shorter than Bluebeard's Castle, Schöenberg's surreal and introspective look at the mind of a mentally broken women in an insane asylum features only the one character, aptly named Woman. Susan Marie Pierson took on this monstrously difficult role and spectacularly performed with a certain ease. The other figures - Lover, Mistress, and Psychiatrist - were all silent and invented by Robert Lepage (the original creator of this production). The setting is oblique and haunting; Schöenberg easily matches this atmosphere with his atonal music. The on-stage effects further enhanced the mood. A white light suspended in the air represented the moon and very thin and faint curtains were employed to create both forest fog and an ethereal glow that allowed sets to transition easily between different places (asylum, street, forest, etc.)

2. Marriage of Figaro (Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart)
This was a new production of Mozart's classic and, to my surprise, it was quite raunchy. This may have damaged the refined humor of the opera, but it did make for a lot of laughs (the 'ding ding dong dong' passage sung by Suzanna was especially hard on our stomachs). The performance was solid; I can't really think of a single main character that was not portrayed well. Countness Almaviva had a gorgeous singing voice and Cherubino was hilarious. There were a few parts where I didn't like Suzanna (particularly the opening duet with Figaro and some spots in the third act). However, both Figaro and the Count had a great dynamic between themselves and with other characters. I was really impressed by the conductor, who doubled between playing the harpsichord during the recitative sections and conducting the orchestra during the arias. That was some serious multi-tasking.

1. Elektra (Richard Strauss)
Without a doubt my favorite of the year. Everything from the initial curtain drop to the final slamming of the castle doors was well-executed. Based off of the Sophocles' tragedy, Elektra is a bone-chilling tale of such classic themes as despair, betrayal, revenge, and death. This also marked Strauss' most dissonant and harmonically extreme work before entering the third phase of his compositional career and returning to slightly less radical writing. Both portrayals of Klytamnestra (from what I hear about the second cast) were brilliant: despicably evil, yet at the same time weak and pitiable. The orchestra did a great job of laying the foundation for the on-stage drama. The set was a little confusing: it resembled a dungeon but was open-air, making it seem more like a courtyard right outside the main castle doors. I'm still not quite sure what the location was.

In any case, everything in the production - as it good as it all was - paled in comparison to Janice Baird's performance as Elektra. Elektra is not a one-person show (unlike Erwartung), but with Baird in the lead it might as well have been. Her singing was good, but her acting was magnificent. Baird was able to bring out all of Elektra's deepest and most twisted emotions while retaining the barest traces of a lost innocence. Of everything in the opera this year, it was the character of Elektra that touched my soul the most - and then wrenched it around the room like a mad dog.

The Joys of the Lord...

2009-05-08T20:29:00.000-07:00

It's sad that someone's future could be ruined (or at least set back) by this...

A student at a fundamentalist Baptist school that forbids dancing, rock music, hand-holding and kissing will be suspended if he takes his girlfriend to her public high school prom, his principal said.
Despite the warning, 17-year-old Tyler Frost, who has never been to a dance before, said he plans to attend Findlay High School's prom Saturday.
Frost, a senior at Heritage Christian School in northwest Ohio, agreed to the school's rules when he signed a statement of cooperation at the beginning of the year, principal Tim England said.
The teen, who is scheduled to receive his diploma May 24, would be suspended from classes and receive an "incomplete" on remaining assignments, England said. Frost also would not be permitted to attend graduation but would get a diploma once he completes final exams. If Frost is involved with alcohol or sex at the prom, he will be expelled, England said.

Torture and Information

2009-05-07T15:25:00.001-07:00

In light of Obama's recent release of the "torture memos," one of my professors - Seth Weinberger, who has written some thoughts on the subject - led a discussion earlier this week on the subject of torture and what meanings/implications of the memos. There are tons of books, articles, posts, and random bits of information on torture and all of the issues involved in this sensitive subject. What I want to focus on here is a very narrow aspect of the debate.

At the end of the lecture, Professor Weinberger posed a question: "should the reliability or accuracy of information be weighed in (retroactively) assessing justifications of torture?" He, along with most people in the room, said no. Attempting to create this type of threshold to measure how appropriateness of torture makes it impossible to establish a clear moral line. For the purposes of establishing any theoretical justification for torture, it is necessary to separate moral and practical issues. Moreover, there isn't really a way to build an objective standard. For instance, let's say that we decide that it is appropriate to torture someone if 1) we are 75% certain that this person has crucial information that will 2) save the lives of at least 1,000 people. Obviously there is the impossibility of measuring these "objective" standards. But let's say that, hypothetically, we could precisely measure our certainty and the accurately predict the number of people that would die. Under this standard, it would not be appropriate to torture someone if only 999 people were going to die, or if we were only 74% sure. If we were to justify it by saying "oh well it's close enough that we can do it anyways," we end up on a slippery slope (if 999 is ok then what about 998, 997... 200, 199).

By this argument, the reliability or accuracy of the information should not be used to justify past use of torture. I don't disagree with this, but it seems like the argument - taken to a logical conclusion (both by myself and by others present at the discussion) - implies that the standard of information should have no bearing whatsoever on justifying torture. Unless you strictly uphold an absolute ban on torture this is problematic. This is akin to saying "the ends don't justify the means." But this worn cliche overlooks something crucial - what does justify the means? The means cannot really be said to justify themselves; that is really dangerous because it implies completely subjective interpretation by everyone.

There are three reasons why torture is applied for informational purposes (as opposed to purposes of political intimidation or extraction of confessions):

The threat is viewed as so great that allowing it to achieve its goal would result in an outcome that is morally worse than the act of torture itself (the ends justify the means).
The detainee possesses information that will aid in preventing this threat from achieving its ends.
Torture is the most effective way to achieve the information required to prevent this threat from achieving its ends.

The first is a purely moral question; the second and third tend to be considered practical questions (because the means of determining their saliency are practical not moral). Before getting into issues of this moral/practical division, it is important to look at why torture might be considered as an option in the first place. Even before debating torture as an effective strategy, there is the issue that it is believed the detainee possesses information necessary to stop the threat. If the reliability/accuracy/value of the information should play no role in justifying torture then why would we torture in the first place? Of course, you could still argue on the grounds of point one that the scale of the threat is so great that torture is morally less abhorrent. But this doesn't provide any foundation for justifying torture. You've simply said that torture isn't as bad as the threat, not that torture contributes anything towards preventing the threat.

In other words, it is difficult to justify torture on either purely moral or practical grounds. The division is somewhat artificial. At some point, there needs to be a combination of the two. It's not moral to torture someone if - even conceding that nature of the threat - you do it despite no evidence (or contrary evidence) saying that it reduces the likelihood or costs of a terrorist attack. Along the same lines, you cannot argue that the standards of information should have no bearing on the decision to torture and still endorse torture as morally allowable under certain circumstances (although there should be a line drawn between this and retroactively using successful information to justify a past case of torture that occurred outside of the legal process).

It is important to remember that even if you believe that torture is morally justifiable, it doesn't necessarily follow that we should do it. Except for deontologists (who believe that some means are wrong no matter what ends/consequences result from them) and some extreme moral absolutists, most people would consider the sole act of torturing a terrorist morally preferable to a bombing that kills 100 civilians if and only if the torture yields information that prevents the attack (the real protests come from creating an environment of permissibility and the potential problems that could follow). Of course, you cannot know ahead of time whether or not the information will work, and as noted earlier, retroactive application should not be morally permissible. Therefore, a prior expectation of reliability and standard of measuring how the information will help avert such a disaster is necessary prior to the act of torture. If information had no relevance in justifying torture - if torture had a moral justification but no practical one - then it would be justifiable to torture the terrorist regardless of whether the information yielded did anything to prevent the attack.

As I mentioned, there is no inconsistency if you argue that information should not be relevant to justifying torture if you also believe that torture is not morally permissible under any circumstances. However, the pros and cons of an absolute ban (and yes there are some) are best left for another post.

Conspiracy you Swine!

2009-05-06T10:21:00.000-07:00

Pushing the boundaries of absurdity, a Syrian columnist writes that swine flu might be the result of American labs specializing in developing viruse s (the original column can be found, in Arabic, here). You gotta love Syria.

This is humorous considering mainstream media is starting to catch up and realize that there was gross overreaction. The regular flu kills approximately 36,000 people every year in the US (whose deaths we tend to not get so worked up about). According to the WHO, seasonal flu strikes 57,000- 96,000 people and kills about 10% of them per week. Swine flu has killed less than 50 so far. The big worry is that we have no vaccination for swine flu. This is certainly a concern; measures should be taken to limit/prevent the spread of the virus. However, the media was very unhelpful in whipping up a frenzy of "global pandemic" proportions. Losing our heads is exactly what we shouldn't do in situations like this.

Vanishing Point

2009-05-03T19:46:00.000-07:00

The BBC had a really cool article today on an artist that made a vehicle "disappear."

A design student made a battered old Skoda "disappear" by painting it to merge with the surrounding car park. Sara Watson, who is studying drawing at the University of Central Lancashire (Uclan), took three weeks to transform the car's appearance

Link: Thailand Collapsing under its own Weight

2009-04-29T08:48:00.001-07:00

I was going to post on the political crisis in Thailand, but an editorial last week sums up much of I wanted to say. The piece is by Duncan McCargo, a professor of Southeast Asian politics at the University of Leeds, who has written extensively on Thailand and did fieldwork in the country last year. (notice the spelling of Samuel Huntington...)

The standard explanations for the conflict, trotted out in lots of journalistic reports, are extremely simplistic. We are often told that the yellow shirts are an elite group of urban elites, in contrast to the rural poor who support Thaksin. This is a popular oversimplification that can be traced back to Thai politician scientist Anek Laothamatas’s notion of Thailand as ‘two democracies’, an idea derived from Samuel Huntingdon. According to this reading, the rural masses elect politicians who are in turn rejected by the urban elites through a variety of methods. In practice it just isn’t that simple. For a start, many of the ‘rural poor’, registered to vote in the North and Northeast, actually live and work in Bangkok. All they leave at home are their house registration documents, since voter registration officials in the capital are reluctant to allow casual workers from the provinces to formalise their residence in the capital. In many villages in Northeastern provinces such as Roi Et, it is hard to find an adult of working age except during the rice planting and harvesting periods - and at elections, when registered voters all go home to visit their elderly relatives and collect illegal payments from vote canvassers. Meanwhile the ‘town districts’ of rural provinces, where much of the permanent adult population of those provinces actually live, have electoral characteristics quite similar to those of Bangkok. In Thailand, there is an enormous amount of the rural in the urban, and a good deal of the urban in the rural. And in any case, the urban/rural split does not map neatly onto the red/yellow divide. Many of the most loyal supporters of the PAD were actually from the countryside, especially - though by no means exclusively - from the South. Surprisingly, many of them were middle-aged and female.

Read the whole piece here.

Happy Birthday Patch!

2009-04-24T20:01:00.000-07:00

Today Patch turned 16 (in human years that's 80). Despite her age she is as active as ever. Here are some pictures to mark the occasion.

The Solution to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict!

2009-04-24T11:39:00.000-07:00

(Hat tip to Stephen Bennet)

From the Arabist.

An amazing map of Palestine, if you replace all of the areas controlled by Israel (roads, settlements, etc.) by water. The best illustration of the unworkable Bantustan model imposed by Israel I’ve seen.

Update: Good News on State Need Grant

2009-04-24T10:25:00.000-07:00

Some good news down in Olympia this morning in an update to my recent coverage of the Washington State Need Grant. I wrote last week that the Senate amended their proposed budget to allow Need Grants for students at private universities to rise up to the level of the four-year public research institutions (UW and WSU). Today, the House released their striking amendment to SHB1244 which matches the Senate regarding section 613 (2)(b). Now both versions of the budget contain language that allows private school Need Grants to match the public research institutions.

There are still some differences over award eligibility for particular income brackets above 50% of medium family income. However, it looks like state universities will be allowed to raise their tuition up to 14% for next year. This means that Need Grants will potentially be able to rise to this level. Even though there are some distributional differences in the proposed budgets, the increase to Need Grants in absolute terms is a very silver lining in an otherwise cloudy budget.

The session isn't over yet so there's still a chance that these amendments might not make it through to the final budget. However, this is pretty unlikely since both the Senate and House now contain this language and everyone is scrambling to finish up before the session ends on Sunday - they certainly don't want to go into overtime as this will cost the state more money is doesn't have. Let's keep our fingers crossed.

Muscle Flexing: Not a cause for Red Alert

2009-04-23T20:52:00.000-07:00

Today, China demonstrated how far the PLAN has come in the last decade during its naval show. China's seaborne forces consist of over 250 vessels, including nearly 30 destroyers and almost 50 frigates. Its submarine fleet is particularly noteworthy with over 50 diesel-powered and 6 nuclear-powered subs. Of the latter, there are both Shang class attack types and Jin class ballistic missile subs. The navy and the air force together have approximately 2,300 operational aircraft.

Against all of this, President Hu Jintao has been quoted as saying that China has no intention to seek hegemony. It is, of course, expected that such a thing would be said. However, there is a noticeable strand of truth in this statement, especially considering the nature of China's current military capabilities. Most of the PRC's military development has been geared towards maintaining regional military superiority and establishing an edge in any contingency operations - specifically regarding Taiwan. Its military modernization has not been focused on acquiring capabilities for power projection or significant regional expansion. China faces not-so-insignificant obstacles for moving outward into places such as the Indian Ocean.

The modernization of China's military has greatly enhanced its ability to deter attacks on the mainland. Along with its impressive submarine force, China has built a strong capacity for anti-submarine warfare through acquiring advanced naval mines and sonar technology. It has a wide array of platform-based missiles, including the land based Dongfeng-21 (CSS-5) medium-range ballistic missile. These are potential weapons for striking aircraft carriers, the preeminent symbol and tool of power projection. The Chinese recognize that the US relies heavily on its carrier fleet to transmit its strength to faraway regions. Accordingly, the PLAN has increased its holdings of over a dozen types of anti-ship cruise missiles, including the Silkworm missile (SY-2) and the supersonic Flying Dragon (FL-7). Its four Sovremenny-class destroyers (purchased from Russia) are among its potent warships and also carry anti-ship missiles.

The Chinese have also been very active at developing the capacity for asymmetric warfare. Their cyberwarfare infrastructure is perhaps the most advanced in the world - although it is true that hackers are as problematic as they are useful for the government. It has invested heavily in electronic (EMP, HERF weapons, jamming technology) and anti-space warfare (as shown when it shot down its aging weather satellite). Finally, the Chinese have taken steps to negate the advantages of US power projection by moving critical infrastructure out of the range of carriers and air strikes. For example, they have started moving fiber-optic communications underground and defense facilities deeper into Western provinces such as Sichuan and Qingdao.

Yet these many improvements do not translate into a decisive advantage for regional expansion, nor do they signal such intentions. China has been most concerned with improving its capabilities vis-a-vis Taiwan. However, it still faces tremendous barriers to moving beyond its own backyard. For one, it does not exercise dominance over the Straits of Malacca and is dependent on the flow of trade through the narrow waterway. Attempting to bring the straits under its direct control would force it into a confrontation with other regional powers and provoke action from India's naval forces.

Right now, China cannot afford to take these steps. Things may change in the future if it increases its projection capacity, but there is little to fear from aggressive expansion at the moment. The biggest worry from the PRC's increased asymmetric and traditional capabilities is that it would be able to better win a limited-stakes confrontation over Taiwan should such a conflict erupt. This is very different from worrying over China making a bid for regional hegemony.

Thoughts on Performance Pay

2009-04-23T11:43:00.000-07:00

Performance (merit) pay is perhaps the most controversial topic in American education reform today. It is widely opposed by teachers' unions (the National Education Association being at the forefront of this opposition). It's no easy issue to solve. The longstanding dispute has given rise to countless quantitative and qualitative studies showing contradictory evidence. Some argue that although there are positive short-term effects, evidence is weak for effectively establishing long-term incentive plans . However, recent research argues that merit pay would act as a better predictor of teacher productivity than single-salary pay schedules.

President Obama has long been an advocate for performance pay, and his remarks last month confirm that this remains an important issue for him.

For decades, Washington has been trapped in the same stale debates that have paralyzed progress and perpetuated our educational decline. Too many supporters of my party have resisted the idea of rewarding excellence in teaching with extra pay, even though we know it can make a difference in the classroom.

The logic of performance pay is sound. If you offer higher monetary incentives for higher quality of teaching, then it is expected that teaching quality will go up. Regardless of the altruistic reasons someone might have for teaching, higher income remains a powerful motivating force for improving results. The problem lies in how performance is to be measured. In this, the Obama administration has not been very clear. Diane Ravitch expects that Obama is leaning towards using "value-added" test scores as the basis for raising teacher pay and offers some warnings about the dangers involved:

First, it will create an incentive for teachers to teach only what is on the tests of reading and math. This will narrow the curriculum to only the subjects tested.
Second, it will encourage not only teaching to the test, but gaming the system (by such mechanisms as excluding low-performing students) and outright cheating.
Third, it ignores a wealth of studies that show that student test scores are subject to statistical errors, measurement errors, and random errors, and that the “noise” in these scores is multiplied when used to make high-stakes personnel decisions.
Fourth, it ignores the fact that most teachers in a school are not eligible for “merit” bonuses, only those who teach reading and math and only those for whom scores can be obtained in a previous year.
It ignores the fact that many factors play a role in student test scores, including student ability, student motivation, family support (or lack thereof), the weather, distractions on testing day, etc.
It ignores the fact that tests must be given at the beginning and the end of the year, not mid-year as is now the practice in many states. Otherwise, which teacher gets "credit," and a bonus for score gains, the one who taught the student in the spring of the previous year or the one who taught her in the fall?

Ravitch argues that it would be quite easy for education to get worse even as test scores go up. Anyone familiar with the AP program knows that teachers teach towards the test in order to improve scores. This does not necessarily equip our students better for the real world or higher education. AP tests have some very good qualities, but they should not be the defining characteristic of the classroom experience. Score increases through teaching towards tests are not accurate indicators of an improvement in the quality of education. Such teaching methods involve inside tricks that function like shortcuts, and this has a notable impact on the impact on what students learn and how they learn it (see pages 3 and 4).

Ravitch's argument that teachers will cheat and game the system exaggerates the inherent dangers of tests. If such gaming is possible, it is more likely due to the design of the particular tests being used, rather than tests in general. The main problem here is that the standardized tests we have today were not designed to measure quality of instruction. Performance pay cannot be based on faulty criteria. Numbers and statistics can be just as subjective as words - quantitative data reflects particular parameters that people construct when they develop methodology. Thus, an evaluation system for performance pay must be based on sound research looking specifically at which factors impact teaching quality the most (and they work). Only then can we really look at practically implementing merit pay while minimizing the potential harms of such a system.

When the Washington Education Association (WEA) killed the state proposal for merit pay last month, Representative Glenn Anderson (R-5th) comments were as follows:

"When you're used to getting your own way, you know people walk around and throw their weight around here, you know it's politics. And some people have a very inflated sense of their role."

No one can doubt the WEA got their way because of the enormous political clout they have (although this is a function of how well organized they are - and that's not something we can really blame them for). Still, there was no detailed plan on how we should measure and evaluate performance. Without this, any system of performance pay will be fraught with dangers and inconsistencies. Perhaps it would have been worth the federal stimulus dollars that the state would have been eligible for had the bill passed. But this might have also engendered a state program with detrimental long-term effects.

A Taste of Asia in Tacoma

2009-04-22T22:55:00.000-07:00

We just had a fantastic group of Cambodian exchange students on campus for about two weeks. For many of them, this was their first time outside of their country (and for all except one, the first time to the US). They returned home early this morning. As a fitting timing to their departure, the local News Tribune ran a piece on nearby Asian markets. While the Cambodians were here, we took them to a few of these stores so they could have a reminder of home while they were among Farrelli's and Jimmy Mac's Roadhouse.

America's West Coast is particularly privileged to have substantial cultural and economic interaction with the Pacific Rim. Not only do the ports facilitate trade in goods and services, but immigration/emigration and travel have had great influence on the development of local communities. About half of Tacoma's sister cities are in Asia: Davao City, Fuzhou, Taichung, Kitakyushu, and Gunsan (also Vladivostok, if you count that as Asian; see here for the full list).

One of the best manifestations of Asian culture in Tacoma is food. In the greater Puget Sound region, there are countless Asian restaurants (of all sorts: Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Thai, Malaysian). Local markets are generally owned by immigrant families. It was great to take the Cambodians to stores where they could converse with the cashiers and managers in Khmer.

Below is a list of tasty foods to buy at these markets (reproduced from the TNT article above).

FRUITS AND NUTS
Pummelo: Similar to a large grapefruit, but with thicker membranes, more juice and a sweeter taste. You can eat the flesh raw.
Fresh coconut: Use fresh coconuts for their milk and their flesh. Find the soft spot on the bottom and make a hole with a screw driver to take out the milk. Crack the skin with a hammer, remove the inner white flesh in chunks and grate it. To make coconut curry, place grated coconut in a sieve and flush it with coconut milk and a little water.
Gingko nuts: Can be roasted in a stovetop pan or shelled and fried.
VEGETABLES
Wild sesame leaf: With a pungent smell, it’s said to aid digestion. Serve it fresh on a plate with cooked beef strips and rice; eat it by wrapping the beef and rice inside the leaf.
Lemongrass: Popular in Thai and Vietnamese dishes, this is a pungent herb that tastes like lemons. Cut off the tough, outer leaves and use it in stir fries, curries or soups.
Dried vegetables: Everything from eggplant to zucchini are popular. Soak them in water to rehydrate, then use in stir fries.
Japanese eggplants: Long, thin eggplants tend to be firmer inside than larger eggplant varieties. Cut them diagonally and saute.
Giant white radish: Can be sliced and eaten raw, or used to make kimchi, a spicy pickled vegetable dish from Korea.
Taro root: A brown tuber, taro can be peeled and cooked in soup. Its slimy cooked texture may not appeal to everyone.
Mushrooms: In addition to familiar white or brown button mushrooms, you’ll find mushrooms known as elephant ear or wood ear, so named because they resemble the ear of an elephant. Large oyster mushrooms can be sliced into strips, bathed in soy sauce and barbecued.
STAPLES
Tofu: Made from soybeans and a good source of protein, particularly for people who don’t eat meat. It comes in soft, medium or hard varieties. It can be stir-fried with vegetables, warmed in the microwave with green onions, garlic and soy sauce, or mixed in soups.
Noodles: There are literally limitless varieties of noodles. They can be made from wheat, buckwheat, rice or beans. Udon from Japan, chow mein noodles from China and rice noodles from Vietnam are some varieties you may be familiar with. In Korea, buckwheat noodles are traditionally eaten in summer and are said to help keep you cool. Experiment to find which kinds you like best.
Noodles may be dried, or they may come fresh in vacuum packs.
Beans and grains: Black beans, black sesame seeds, black rice – you’ll find them all in an Asian market. They are believed to be more healthful than other types of grains. You can also buy several types of grains of varying colors and make your own mix.
Tea: Many kinds of tea found in the Asian market are not made from tea plants at all, but rather from roasted grains such as barley or herbs such as Solomon’s seal root. These teas are naturally caffeine-free.
Sauces: In an Asian market, you’ll find rows and rows of sauces – many varieties of soy sauce, hot sauce, fish sauce, barbecue sauce and more. Fortunately many of the imported pre-packaged foods have labels in English, as well as from their country of origin. When in doubt, look for pictures on the labels that show you what kind of food the sauce is used for. Experiment to find which ones you like best.
PREPARED FOODS
Mochi: These snacks are made of soft, sweet rice outside and sweetened bean paste inside. The outer layer may take its color from green vegetables or pink flowers.
Ready-made foods: Some stores feature premade dishes in the refrigerator case that allow you to skip the cooking. You’ll find ready-to-eat seaweed salad, pickled radish, tiny crabs in hot sauce that are eaten whole, deep-fried squid barbecued tofu and more.
Fish: Fish cakes are made from minced white fish formed into patties, rectangles or other shapes. Precooked fish cake can be fried, steamed or baked. It can go into soup, or can be eaten as is.
Dried anchovies are eaten whole. They may be stir-fried or used to make broth. In traditional Asian diets, which use little to no dairy products, whole fish such as dried anchovies are a source of calcium.
Debbie Cafazzo: 253-597-8635

Cooking hints

Rice: Rice is a staple in many Asian dishes. You can prepare it ahead of time, freeze it in smaller portions and then pop a serving in the microwave to heat when you’re ready to use it.
When cooking in a wok or frying pan, heat the pan first, then add oil. You’ll need less oil that way.
To make spring rolls: Quickly dip the wrappers in hot water until they’re flexible, then fill with vegetables, and cooked shrimp or tofu.
For a tasty dipping sauce for spring rolls: Mix 1/2 cup fish sauce, juice of one lime and sugar to taste. Heat until sugar melts.

Here are some nearby stores to check out.

East Asia Market
602 S. 38th St., Tacoma
253-473-3799
Hong Kong Supermarket
3816 Yakima Ave., Tacoma
253-471-0744
Boo Han Asian Food Supermarket
9122 S. Tacoma Way, Lakewood
253-588-7300
Pal-Do World International Mart
In Lakewood, 9701 S.
Tacoma Way, 253-581-7800
In Federal Way, 2200 S.
320th St., 253-941-8282
H-Mart
31217 Pacific Highway S., Federal Way
253-528-0500
Arirang Oriental Market
7940 Martin Way E., Olympia
360-456-1858

Link: Analysis of the New Torture Memos

2009-04-17T18:38:00.000-07:00

Seth Weinberger, one of my professors and thesis adviser, has started a series of posts analyzing the recently released memos. Highly recommended reads - he has some very thoughtful insights on the subject.

Part I: http://securitydilemmas.blogspot.com/2009/04/legalizing-torture-part-i-2002-bybee_17.html

Part II: http://securitydilemmas.blogspot.com/2009/04/legalizing-torture-part-ii-30-may-2005.html

I will update this entry as new posts become available.

Debating Political Science

2009-04-17T08:59:00.000-07:00

Joseph Nye's recent op-ed has sparked much debate over the usefulness (or uselessness) of political science. The issue is whether or not political science (as an academic field) offers anything to policymaking. For Nye, the two have grown so far apart that political science is really in its own little world. This is an issue I've spent a great deal of time thinking about. There have been many published critiques (by Alfred North Whitehead, Herman Daly, and others) of using mainstream economic theory to formulate policy. Now almost the reverse argument is being applied to political science - that the theories developed have aren't being used to guide policymaking.

Science and policy are two very different things. There is applicability of the former to the latter, but it's very dangerous to go down the road that economics has gone. Academic rigor allows for higher predictive power but generally under qualified conditions that may or may not be matched in the real world. We shouldn't think of theories developed in academia as inherently better than more policy-oriented frameworks. They serve different functions. Relying too much on the former means we'll eventually be using analytical tools that ignores reality.

Dan Drezner's original reaction: http://drezner.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/04/14/what_if_scholars_cant_play_the_game

Second Response: http://drezner.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/04/17/the_academy_strikes_back

Monkey Cage Coverage: http://www.themonkeycage.org/2009/04/political_science_irrelevance.html

Update on Washington State Need Grant

2009-04-16T16:54:00.000-07:00

An update to this post.

Last night the Senate Ways and Means Committee passed an amendment allowing state need grants to match the public research universities. See ICW's coverage here.

A Look at what's Needed for Emission Cuts

2009-04-16T14:26:00.001-07:00

David Hone, the climate change adviser for Shell, has an interesting piece on what would be needed for the US to cut emissions around 20% by 2020.

Increase the annual improvement in energy efficiency (energy/GDP) to about 2.5% p.a. This is delivered by a 6 mpg jump in on-the-road vehicle efficiency (i.e. all vehicles, not just the new ones), a 10% drop in total residential energy demand despite a >10% rise in population and a 6% drop in industrial energy use. I have assumed that the commercial sector energy demand rises. Power generation efficiency must also improve.
Restart the nuclear industry and achieve a net increase in capacity of about 15 GW - i.e. no drop off in capacity as older stations are retired.
Install ~40,000 5 MW wind turbines, that’s about 10 every day. Each of these turbines is over 100 metres high.
Fit (or build new) 60 big coal fired power stations with carbon dioxide capture and storage. Not one large scale commercial plant exists today. It means the first round of demonstration facilities (say 10-20 units) must be agreed on in 2010 so that construction can start.
Install 30 GW of large scale solar, both photovoltaic and solar-thermal.
Shift the vehicle fuel pool to 10% advanced biofuels with a near-zero carbon footprint.

As we build up to the Copenhagen summit in December, there have already been calls for the developed countries to reduce emissions by 40-45% over the next ten years. Take a look at that list again. Now factor in the economic crisis, special interests, and political gridlock. So what are the odds?

Maybe I'll die in a terrorist attack.

The Evolution of Citation Styles

2009-04-16T13:47:00.001-07:00

(Hat Tip to The Bygone Bureau)

In keeping with the spirit of the times, the Modern Language Association (MLA) citation style will no longer consider print as the primary medium. Web-URLs will also not be required in citations.

Personally, I think that URLs are really handy because I'm generally reviewing documents in electronic form. It's nice to be able to click on the link and have it open the window automatically. Of course, if the link is dead then I type the citation information in manually. But it's nice to have that option.

Wonder if Chicago will also start changing along these lines.

Taxes and Tea

2009-04-16T12:57:00.000-07:00

There were supposedly 4,000-5,000 people protesting higher taxes in Olympia yesterday, as reported by the Tacoma News Tribune and Eye on Olympia. Strangely, most everyone on the capitol campus I've spoken to has said there's no way that many people were here yesterday. The count was estimated by an overhead plane. Maybe they were accurate, but the media has capitalized on this estimate to sensationalize Olympia's "largest rally of the year."

Protests are always interesting to watch, as the recent G-20 protests demonstrate. Often, these movements have real grievances; aspects of what they argue for are substantiated in reality. Yet this is almost never the whole picture. Yesterday Olympia was faced with a protest invoking the spirit of the Boston Tea Party to fight against "wicked government and taxes." Of course, this invocation was a bit less than accurate. In 1773, American colonists were fed up with taxation without representation (sound familiar from grade school?) No matter how you want to argue that our legislators "aren't listening to us," we are clearly not in the same situation today. Our officials were elected (whether you voted for them or not). Having a first-hand account of how state politics are conducted on a regular basis, I can say with a rather high degree of confidence that they do listen to us.

Sure the protesters were simply exercising their political rights, but they were also spewing some pretty unfair poison. In justifying the need for privatization, one could see signs like "Nazis were socialists too." Never mind that Nazi socialism was even more warped from Marx's original thought than Stalinist communism, by that logic, I suppose we should act like right-wing dictators such as Sukarno or Alberto Fujimori because they fought against "evil Marxists." "Socialism doesn't work," makes for a nice chant, but this grossly misrepresents the condition that we're in. We are not about to start setting prices for goods and creating communal kitchens. These people would like to see less government and more private sector, but they seem to be oblivious to the fact that excessive deregulation has contributed to some of our main financial problems.

What I love the most is that you see "No Taxes!" adjacent to "No Cuts!" Okay, so we're facing a shortfall of around $9 billion. People don't want to raise taxes, and they don't want the state to cut programs. See a problem here? One of these has to happen in order to bridge the massive gap. Unlike the federal government, states do not have the power to create money out of thin air. If people don't want more taxes, then they are going to have to accept that many state funded programs are going to bear the costs - education, healthcare, unemployment support, the list can go on. The problem is that there are very few programs people are willing to see cut.

No one likes taxes, but there's no reason to waste tea over it.

Bad News is Good; Smart News is Better

2009-04-15T09:46:00.000-07:00

(Hat Tip to Kyle Schuant: see his post)

There are lots of theories out there about the impact of the media on, well, just about everything... from foreign policy to increased rage in angsty adolescents (here's one take which I think most people have heard about).

Instead of talking about scientific studies, why not just watch this video instead?

See more of the madness here.

Weighing Sports and Academics

2009-04-15T09:10:00.001-07:00

Inside Higher Ed had an interesting piece on Covenant College, a Presbyterian College in Georgia, which is redirecting some of its budget from academics to sports. This isn't the first time they have spoken to this. Back in January there was news of a broad movement towards boosting sports in order to increase enrollment. All of this has sparked moral outrage and controversy over whether or not these institutions should be cutting their primary mandate in order to fund sports programs.

The logic is that athletics will attract more students/funding/capital/etc. which will help to support academic programs in the long run. Some of the eviscerating comments on these actions are no doubt slighted based on their preference regarding academics vs. athletics. However, it is worth asking what the net financial impact will be on the college. Do athletics programs really lead to a long-term boom in enrollment or simply a short-term enrollment spike? If it's the latter, how does the budget work out once you factor in the costs of expanding sports and the value of any lost academic programs?

One interesting trend is that first-generation higher ed students have been increasingly looking to small liberal-arts colleges as opposed to big state institutions. It's no surprise then that many of these smaller universities are working towards maintaining or expanding their sports programs. Athletics can be a good way to attract a more diverse pool of applicants. It's also a great form of community outreach. Local residents can get involved by coming to watch events and helping out with fundraising. Strong sports teams can help integrate a higher ed institution into the broader community.

However, emphasizing sports can also change the way the admission department works and what they look for in new students each year. Enrollment benchmarks can easily reflect how many varsity students they think are needed to maintain the attractiveness and competitiveness of their athletics programs. Once coaches and trainers are hired, they can function much like a powerful lobby. At my school we ended up building another sports field before the new science building was completed (it was originally supposed to start after the science building was finished). They have vested interests and can couch their language in "what's best for the school," even as they ignore the potential damage their funding may do to other critical programs.

Aside from the economic/budget questions, there is also the normative question of should a university sacrifice sports for athletics. Well, that depends on what type of school you are. For NCAA Division III institutions (which do not offer athletic-related financial aid) the focus is supposed to be on the overall quality of education. Even in tough budget times, this should be a priority issue.

Argh! Pirates on the High Seas

2009-04-13T10:32:00.000-07:00

With the rescue of Captain Richard Phillips, other members of his crew have implored President Obama to put a stop to piracy off the Somali coast. Unfortunately, piracy is one of the most frustratingly difficult problems. Over 80% of global trade still moves on the sea and there are a couple places very prone to piracy. One place, of course, is the off the Horn of Africa (where Somalia is) especially near Bab el Mandeb, the narrow strait that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. The other is the Straits of Malacca, between the west Indonesian island of Sumatra and Peninsular Malaysia.

In general, any level of successful enforcement requires an enormous capacity for patrolling the waters. This capacity is dependent on not only the size and capabilities of naval forces, but the ease in which they can be deployed to piracy-prone areas. The issue really requires international coordination because the US Navy - the most powerful in the world - cannot patrol the entire ocean by itself. Coordination, however, is exceedingly difficult because free riding is such an attractive option. Piracy is a collective action problem on steroids. The Horn of Africa and the Straits of Malacca are easy grounds for piracy because of the narrow waterways and weak enforcement capabilities of the surrounding states. Somalia, Yemen, and Kenya, are not able to provide much constructive assistance. Indonesia is not strictly a failed state, but its immense size and fragmented geography make it very difficult for such a weak government to patrol the straits effectively.

While solving global piracy remains seemingly out-of-reach at the moment, there are realistic options for dealing with the problem off the Somali coast. Like many other forms of criminal activity, piracy is a function of how likely the chance getting away with a profit is. Tom Mahnken argues that the US should take more concrete actions to drive up the risk of piracy. These include giving commanders permission to shoot pirates on sight and authorizing retaliatory strikes against bases.

Of course, these measures will not be very effective in removing the underlying problems behind piracy. Development of the surrounding states will be crucial for this. As long as Somalia, Yemen, and other nearby countries lack the capacity to do even basic state enforcement tasks, pirates will continue to launch attacks from the soil of these countries. But state building is a long-run answer, and it doesn't really help with the short-term costs. I'm also doubtful the American public has the stomach for getting overly involved in Somalia (especially in the midst of Iraq, Afghanistan, and the economic crisis). Thus, focusing on Mahnken's ideas may help to dampen some of the pain caused by piracy.

Successful efforts to combat global piracy need more than just coordination of naval forces. Warships can only patrol so much, and it's quite easy to miss pirate attacks on vast seas and oceans. Ships that are seized are often unable to fend pirates off themselves. The security of these vessels needs to be upgraded in order to reduce their vulnerability. The upgrade can be in the form of escort ships and/or extra "bodyguards" on board the transport vessel. Arming merchant vessels obviously carries risks, especially on ships carrying flammable liquids. But there are ways around this such as non-lethal weapons, better contingency preparations, and coordinating better with regional maritime powers.

The main problem seems to be the financial cost for the companies. Shipping companies will not want to pay the premiums needed to provide this extra security until piracy costs outweigh insurance costs. Perhaps this is something that governments should focus on. They be anti-ARGH subsidies! At any rate, these premiums might soon look attractive. Insurance companies have already jacked up their rates due to many of the recent field days pirates have had. Those $20,000 sonic blasters might become necessary burden on budgets if measures aren't taken to slow/stop the growing cost of shipping.

The fact that companies still choose to negotiate and pay ransom suggests that they still see the costs as lower than those involved in bolstering security in a manner that is effective. These costs are generally much higher in cases involving international commercial vessels (which hoist no particular flag) because all states see it in their interest to let someone take care of it. The crew of the Maersk Alabama were lucky to American. If they had been one of several dozen nationalities, the ordeal would not have been resolved so quickly, so efficiently, and with so remarkably little cost.

We should be thankful that they aren't donning eye patches and hoisting crossbone and skull flags. If they start doing that we're doomed.

Students at Private Colleges are in Trouble: Act Now!

2009-04-09T14:00:00.000-07:00

It's a gloomy time for students. Unfortunately, the Washington State legislature is on the path to treating private college students unfairly. Both the House and Senate versions of budget for the upcoming biennium (2HB1244 and PSSB5600), along with the Governor's proposed budget from the earlier in the year, will enact a freeze on State Need Grants for students at Washington's private colleges. Section 613 (2)(b) will freeze the Need Grant for low-income students attending independent colleges at this year's award level while increasing the grant for their peers who attend public institutions. Within two years, the grants for students going to private universities will lag by about 10%. There are two serious problems with this, one of equality and one of economics.

The equality problem is obvious. If the state's focus is truly on students, then it makes no sense to create this disparity favoring those who attend already subsidized institutions. Consider twin siblings, low-income, Need Grant-eligible, who are high school seniors about to enter college. One picks the University of Puget Sound, one the University of Washington. By year two under the Senate budget the grant for the student at UW is $635 more than the grant for the student at UPS, whose grant is $903 less than it would have been had current policy continued. The House disparity is even larger; the UPS student's grant is $863 less than the UW's and $1,300 less than it would have been under current policy.

The other argument is economic. The state hopes to achieve approximately $5.2 million in savings through this freeze. The problem here is that 613 (2)(b) will not realize this goal. When you factor in the cost of tuition subsidies, it is more likely that this section will have a far greater cost to the state. Need Grant-eligible students who attend private colleges are the least costly enrollment the state supports. Everybody knows that private institutions are more expensive. Most students could not afford to go to them if they did not receive financial aid from a combination of sources, including the State Need Grant. Reducing the award level for only private college students lowers the incentives to attend these schools and increase the chances that they will go to a public institution, where they become a greater cost to the state as a result of tuition support.

Think of it this way. Freezing the Need Grant would cut aid to those who choose to attend private colleges by over $1,400 per student over two years. Let's round that up and say the state saves as much as $2,000 per student every two years. As a result some of these students choose to attend a public college. The state now must pay around $30,000 for that student in the form of tuition support. Over four years, the state saves $4,000 only to pay $60,000. Of course, not all students will shift from private to public colleges. However, the critical point is that not very many of them would need to. Roughly 150 students are all it would take to eat up that $5.2 million in savings. And if only half that number switch to public colleges the state still loses a substantial chunk of that $5.2 million.

If public universisites are allowed to raise their tuition by up to 14%, then the state's burden for tuition support will increase concurrently. (Newspaper coverage on tuition increases available at the Seattle Times, Seattle P-I, and Tacoma News Tribune.) On top of all this, I have been hearing with increasing frequency that students may take longer to finish their degree programs, precisely because of budget cuts at public institutions. It's not hard to see what an extra semester or two of tuition support would mean for the state budget.

In the first place, it has been argued in a couple places that low tuition is not necessarily the best form of aid. This evidence shows that more financial aid, not low tuition, is a better tool for increasing access to higher education - especially for low-income students. 613 (2)(b) would eliminate a great strength of Washington State's financial aid system: that it is student focused, empowering students to choose the college, public or private, that best suits their needs, and then giving them assistance appropriate for the institutions they attend. Most students and their families are sensitive to even the smallest cost changes. Moreover, these small cost changes have a massively disproportionate negative effect on state revenue.

There are other options available. The HECB (Higher Education Coordinating Board) has calculated that allowing the Need Grant award to match the public research institutions (UW and WSU) would allow the state to achieve nearly $2 million in savings. This is still a loss for private colleges than if levels had risen as normal, but it is a smaller one. The other part of the $5.2 million could then be obtained by cutting $50 from all State Need Grant awards. While private-college students still bear a greater share of the burden, this solution is a much more equal distribution of wealth. It also reduces the likelihood and number of students moving from private to public colleges, in turn reducing the tuition burden on the state (and increasing revenue). Along these same lines, if the state were to cut around $72 from all Need Grant awards, the award level for private institutions could rise normally while also realizing the $5.2 million in savings.

Private colleges can continue aiding public colleges in taking on enrollment but only if financial policy continues to support students who make that choice. Conservatively, Washington's private colleges save the state $360 million per year in enrollment subsidies. They also deliver great bang for the buck, in the form of 25% of the state's baccalaureate and higher degrees every year on less than 2% of the higher education budget. These represent financial aid dollars brought in by students, as opposed to dollars given out by the state.

So as residents of Washington State what can you do to help? Contact your legislators and voice your concern about what is happening. Ask them to strike 613 (2)(b) from the budget so that all students can continue to have more choice in where they receive their higher education.

You can contact your legislators directly. Visit the state legislature website at http://apps.leg.wa.gov/DistrictFinder/Default.aspx

Independent Colleges of Washington also has an advocacy center where you can personalize a template message on this issue. See it at http://capwiz.com/naicu/wa/home/

Terrorism on the Periphery

2009-04-05T23:56:00.000-07:00

In recent news there has been some good coverage of terrorism away from the attention centers of Iraq and Afghanistan. A couple weeks ago Abu Sayyaf, a terrorist group linked to Al-Qaeda, took three Red Cross hostages in the Philippines. demanding that government troops withdraw from the southern island of Sulu. Although one has been released, the other two remain in captivity and the Philippine government is showing little sign of conceding ground to Abu Sayyaf. Isabela, the capital of Basilan island, was also rocked by a bombing that killed 2 and wounded 8.

Moreover, it was recently reported that since 2001, terrorism in the Maghreb has increased by 400%. This information comes from a report by the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies and the Conflict Management Program at SAIS (Johns Hopkins) on the importance of the region. The report details the substantial US ties with countries in the Maghreb. Two notable are examples are the free trade agreement with Morocco and support to Algeria in combating Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb.

With security in Iraq still tenuous and the situation in Afghanistan escalating, it is easy to forget about the many countries away from these centers that are dealing with terrorism. Terrorist networks have become increasingly more decentralized and geographically dispersed. Although several leading figures within Jemaah Islamiya have been killed or captured by Indonesian police, others remain at large. The group has been implicated as directing the Sulu hostage crisis behind the scenes.

The Mahgreb report makes for a good read. Among other things, it details the need for more effective cooperation in counterterrorism efforts. Tools for doing this include strengthening cooperation more broadly through boosting trade and investment, both internally and externally; solidfying the link between civil society and the public sector; and promoting greater regional integration. In East and Southeast Asia, the US has been involved in APEC and provided aid for development and combating terrorism. As the Mahgreb currently lacks a consolidated framework of this caliber for cooperation, the report implores the Obama administration to move away from the traditional appraoch of dealing with this region as a bunch of separate countries. Along with a more regionally integrated approach, the report highlights the economic and geopolitical importance of the Maghreb countries and calls for elevating considerations of this region above "secondary national interest[s]." (15)

With assistance from the US, Colombia has achieved impressive victories against the FARC. This case can act as a model template for transplanting some of these successes to other regions around the world. With the recent spikes in violence in more peripheral areas like Western Africa and Southeast Asia, such successes are certainly welcome.

Update: I Corps Take Command in Iraq

2009-04-04T14:29:00.000-07:00

A couple weeks ago I wrote about the Fort Lewis-based I Corps' deployment to Iraq. Today they are taking command of day-to-day operations in the country.

“Our time is now to deliver with success and honor,” said Lt. Gen. Charles Jacoby, the corps commander who will become the American military’s No. 2 officer in Iraq.

The Fort Lewis unit deploys at a crucial time in the Iraq War. The level of violence has dropped the lowest levels since the invasion, and President Barack Obama announced plans in March to withdraw combat troops by August 2010 – a process that will be overseen in part by I Corps.

I Corps takes over as Multi-National Corps-Iraq, the second-highest coalition military unit in the country. Multi-National Force-Iraq is the overarching unit under which all coalition forces fall. MNC-I is a step lower; it’s in charge of running daily operations and supporting subordinate units.

Jacoby will answer directly to Gen. Raymond Odierno, the top military commander in Iraq.

I Corps relived XVIII Airborne Corps, which oversaw the end of the troop surge during its yearlong deployment. Jacoby praised the advances made by the Fort Bragg, N.C., unit during a meeting with The News Tribune editorial board last month and said it's absolutely important momentum it built isn't lost.

Let's wish them well.

When the Sun Comes Out, Patch is Happy

2009-04-04T14:02:00.000-07:00

This morning Patch was very pleased with the Sun.

Patch was playing with one of her toys. After the toy ended up stuck to her stomach, she continued playing without knowing quite where it was.

Can You Fathom These Numbers!?

2009-04-03T20:15:00.000-07:00

Nathan Martin posted earlier this week on the value of global derivatives. As it stands, the value of the total market is $1.405 Quadrillion! Over-the-counter derivatives valued about $863 trillion, listed credit derivatives at about $542 trillion (the former are traded directly between negotiating parties while the latter go through an intermediary, such as a stock exchange).

Does this seem a bit absurd?

Herman Daly (of ecological economics fame) pointed out that financial assets have far outstripped real assets in terms of value. This abstract financial economy no longer bears any resemblance to the inherent value of goods and services upon which finance is built. Looking at the derivatives market, this is clearly true.

To put the phenomenal number in context, GWP (Gross World Product) ranges from approximately $45-$70 trillion depending on the source and method of measurement. Regardless of the exact number, the value of derivatives is clearly many times more (23-31 times more according to Nathan).

Check out these nice conceptual representations: trillion and quadrillion

Does your head hurt yet?

Sparked by Nostalgia

2009-04-02T15:55:00.000-07:00

An old friend and her significant other visited me last week from Taiwan and provoked me to write a few thoughts on my mom's homeland. Often I see mainstream news covering Sino-Taiwanese relations (be they hostile or conciliatory). Much more recently the press has devoted a great deal of attention to ex-President Chen Shui-bian, who is on trial for the always popular charges of embezzlement and bribery.

While Taiwanese domestic affairs probably aren't terribly interesting to most readers, it does sometimes dishearten me to see so little of the society depicted. It seems like South Korea, Japan, and China consistently get more attention in the news. I can't really fathom how Taiwan's disputed status would be major obstacle to more substantial news reporting. For whatever reason, it gets the attention it gets, but seeing my friend made me want to write a little about it.

Taiwan boasts some fairly impressive general stats. It usually falls within the top one-sixth of countries in terms of GDP per capita and the human development index. The World Economic Forum ranked Taiwan 17th in their 2008-2009 Global Competitiveness Report. Taiwan also has a solid education system at the primary, secondary, and higher levels.

Despite the many shared elements between China and Taiwan, the relationship between state and society is very different in each country. Taiwan has a vibrant civil society. You can see that in protests of all sorts. Although the protests are more familiar to readers in the US, the strength of Taiwan's democracy and society manifests in other ways. Last year the National Geographic Channel received a warning for broadcasting a documentary with inappropriate content (beheading a goat) at too early a time in the day. Authorities said that they should have shown the program later at night. So what's important about this? Well in many nearby countries, the government would not have issued a warning to something it didn't like. They would have simply censored it or imposed some sort of punishment. Certainly National Geographic didn't pose any threat to the government. Of course, neither did these people.

The island is also rich in cultural history. Taiwan is a nexus of mainlanders (those who came during the period 1947-1949); "Taiwanese" (mainlanders who came from Fujian province mostly between the 14th and 17th centuries); Hakkas (a Chinese minority that fled persecution from the mainland); and the Aborigines (who have been there for thousands of years).

Of course, most importantly, the night markets there have really great food! The food was so good that I got sick once because I ate too many different varieties of food in one night. It wasn't terribly fun being over the toilet, but I'm not too sure that would stop me from doing it again. What does that tell you? No, nothing about me...

More on OER

2009-04-01T22:30:00.001-07:00

(Hat tip to Cable Green)

Geoff Cain recently had a great post on the need for open educational resources.

As if we didn't already have enough impetus, this comes along.

Thousands of textbooks and other materials worth an estimated $4.6 million sit unused in an Irving school district warehouse. No one knows how many $50-$75 textbooks sit unused in school bookrooms or storage warehouses across Texas.

Understanding Biofuels

2009-04-01T21:32:00.000-07:00

By now, I would have thought that all the problems associated with corn-based ethanol were obvious. Yet I still occasionally hear from people that such fuels are feasible. As biofuels are, and will continue to be, an important part of any effort to develop a sustainable energy infrastructure, it's good to understand the scope of what is meant by the term. Brussels-based Biopact has a great overview which covers the pros and cons of the different "generations" of biofuels.

First generation biofuels are most commonly derived from food stock such as grains or sugarcane. Corn ethanol falls under this category. With the exception of sugarcane, these fuels often have negative impacts on food prices. The extraction process may threaten biodiversity and offset any carbon reductions in the actual burning of the fuel.
Second generation fuels avoid the problems associated with food prices/supply and biodiversity. Instead, biomass such as grass, trees, and agricutural residue are converted into energy. The biochemical and thermochemical conversion processes yield a superior carbon balance.
Advancements that capitalize on new specially engineered crops have given way to third generation biofuels. These maintain the advantages of the second generation while improving energy balance and performance. They are often algae-based. Algae are low-input but high-yield feedstocks that can produce many times more energy per acre than land crops.
Fourth generation fuels are still experimental. In these production systems, biomass crops capture CO2 and store it in their branches, trunks, and leaves. The carbon-rich biomass is converted into fuel and gases through second generation techniques. Carbon dioxide is captured in pre-combustion, oxyfuel, or post-combustion processes (before, during, or after conversion into energy). The greenhouse gas is then stored in depleted oil/gas fields, unmineable coal seams, or saline aquifers. Such fuels are renewable and carbon-negative.

While some of the greenest biofuels are still being tested, there are many superior options to corn ethanol. Reasons for supporting corn are purely political.

Travelling in Style

2009-03-31T20:35:00.000-07:00

President Obama's take as he gears up for the G-20 summit.

More than 500 officials and staff will accompany the president on his tour this week - along with a mass of high-tech security equipment, including the $300,000 presidential limousine, known as The Beast. Fitted with night-vision camera, reinforced steel plating, tear- gas cannon and oxygen tanks, the vehicle is the ultimate in heavy armoured transport.
In addition, a team from the White House kitchen will travel with the president to prepare his food. As one official put it: "When the president travels, the White House travels with him, right down to the car he drives, the water he drinks, the gasoline he uses, the food he eats. America is still the sole superpower and the president must have the ability to handle any crisis, anywhere, any time."
US security teams have already carried out three visits to prepare for Obama's first official visit to Britain. The first was a "site survey", the second a "pre-advance visit" which was carried out to pick sites that the president would visit. Finally there was the "advance trip", which took place last week. Its purpose was to set up equipment, sweep venues for electronic bugs, test food for poison and measure air quality for bacteria.

The End of an Era (few spoilers)

2009-03-31T16:13:00.000-07:00

The finale of Battlestar Galactica aired nearly a week and a half ago, but I'm just now getting a chance to write some thoughts about it. This show has been one of the most influential and controversial in recent years. Now having seen it in its entirety, I can evaluate BSG as a whole instead of by episode or season. While it had high and low points (what show doesn't?) it is certainly one of the best TV shows I have ever watched.

BSG has often been praised for its extraordinary, and sometimes unsettling, human realism. Over its course, the show has dealt with the themes of war, sacrifice, morality, terrorism, love, family, friendship, religion, and above all, survival. Many of these topics are familiar, often dominating mainstream news. At times, the storyline has paralleled a number of current events. The insurgency on New Caprica bears resemblance to the situations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Questions of genocide and human rights evoke images of Myanmar, Sudan, and the Congo. BSG's often played political game theorizes what some of our democratic values might look like if the human race were reduced to under 50,000 people on the run in space.

One of the show's most interesting episodes, titled "Black Market," depicts the problems of a major illicit economy within the fleet. The portrayal of violence (potential or actual) and human desire is a poignant reflection of how we deal with illegal activity. Near the end of the episode, Lee Adama offers some food-for-thought regarding the best way to cope with the reality of an underground economy. Some of Lee's ideas can be seen at work in the debate over the war on drugs (or on Afghani opium) and the how to handle with human trafficking. Another episode, "Dirty Hands," deals with worker rights and labor unions, always a recurring subject of debate.

It was a joy for me to see that the United Nations recently hosted a "Battlestar Galactica panel." It featured the show's creators, Ronald D. Moore and David Eick, as well as Edward James Olmos (Williams Adama) and Mary McDonnel (Laura Roslin). On the UN side, Radhika Coomaraswamy (Special Representative of the Secretary-General for children and Armed Conflict) and Craig Mokhiber (from the Office of the High Commissioner for Human rights) were in attendance, among other officials. The panel included discussions of human rights, armed conflict, and ethics in war.

I've heard from many people that they were disappointed with the show's last season or two. The third season had some of the lowest ratings, which I believe accounted for the decision to end the series after its fourth season. Personally, I thought that the third season was the best overall, followed closely by the first (although every season has great parts). What I liked most about season three was that we finally got to see the Cylons from within their society. There was a short glimpse of that in season two ("Downloaded"), but season three really brought this out in full force. Before then, the Cylons were just "the enemy." This is sometimes how those fighting America are portrayed in the news. Season three gave them a face and humanized them (to Cavil's disappointment I'm sure). It's an important lesson to keep in mind. Terrorists and insurgents often have legitimate grievances. This does not necessarily justify the actions that they take, but it's good to keep in mind that there are two or more sides to every dispute. Focusing on only one side is never a good thing.

TV shows often begin floundering after one season, if they even last that long. The strength of BSG is that it managed to maintain a high standard of writing and character development throughout the entirety of the show. It is sad that the series has come to end, but it's better to go out still looking good than to trudge onward as a zombie. The show has had low points (I didn't like first half of season 4 that much). However, overall BSG has consistently had great writing, incredible acting, and a really awesome soundtrack (tip to Bear McCreary). It's difficult to find a TV show that didn't continue airing well past its prime. BSG is one of them.

Sleight of Mind

2009-03-31T15:32:00.000-07:00

FactCheck.org says that Obama has not been entirely truthful when pushing his platform for education reform. The piece raises an interesting point that

whether the education system in the US has improved greatly or needs great improvement may depend on whether a president is nearing the end or just beginning his time in office.

Some of Obama's "fibs" have been more misrepresentations than inaccuracies. However, claiming high school dropout rates have increased by a third when in fact they have decreased by a third is pretty suspicious. It is, in fact, the number of students failing 9th grade and being held back that has tripled (a problem in itself, but a far cry from the overall dropout rate).

As I have written, it's fine to call attention to problems (and we have them) in order to plug reform. But deliberately portraying the situation incorrectly undermines legitimacy and effectiveness.

Water and Energy Converging

2009-03-27T09:35:00.000-07:00

The Wall Street Journal had a recent article on how water is becoming an increasingly important factor in energy considerations. Almost half of the water withdrawals in the US sustain the electric-power industry. There's also a short, but good, commentary on this over at the Energy Collective.

Electricity is one of the highest-grade forms of power, and unfortunately water is an often overlooked cost. It's nice to see some convergence.

Why Khatami should stay out of the Race

2009-03-26T17:23:00.000-07:00

Iran is gearing up for its presidential election in June. Former President Mohammed Khatami recently pulled out of the race, making way for the other two reformist candidates, former Prime Minister Mir Hussein Mousavi and former Parliament Speaker Mehdi Karroubi. While Khatami's personality and outlook would be welcome in the context of Obama's recent gesture, there are a few reasons why he should remain on the outside.

Khatami's presence divided the reformist vote into another block, detracting from the other two candidates. Votes that would have gone to him will now be distributed largely between Mousavi and Karroubi. This also gives Khatami the advantageous position of leveraging his popular and political influence without incurring a direct backlash from conservatives. One article commented that Khatami's withdrawal actually makes the race more complicated. I fail to see how this is so. It's true that Mousavi has to beat Karroubi if he intends to win against Ahmadinejad, but how is this more difficult with Khatami out of the race? Instead of beating three opponents, he only has to beat two. It's very unlikely that Khatami's share of votes will contribute towards strengthening Ahmadinejad. Both Mousavi and Karroubi are more pragmatic reformists. Mousavi in particular has been pegged as not really a reformist. Still, he pales (as a conservative) in comaprison to Ahmadinejad so it is doubtful that the latter would score these votes. Mousavi's ability to bridge gaps among reformists, pragmatists, and conservatives works in his favor. This is all the more important considering that, while Ahmadinejad has taken a political thrashing, he still retains front-runner status.

Khatami had two terms as president from 1997-2005. Early on, he managed to score some important reforms and made a sincere effort to bridge the divide between the US and Iran. However, the hard-liners realized that he would back down once push came to hard shove (as he did during the 1999 municipal elections and the subsequent riots). From then on, they were able to exploit Khatami's weakness because Khatami himself was unsure of his power. Over time, the shift in public opinion reflected this. While he won another term, his second victory was far less impressive. This is not solely Khatami's fault. He had to deal with the limitations placed upon him by the Supreme Leader and the Council of Guardians. America was also slow to respond to Iran's overtures (a trade-off of focusing on the Israeli-Palestinian issue).

Perhaps things would be different now, but I still think that Khatami is better suited to an influential role on the sidelines. When he was on the main stage, uncertainty obstructed his ability to translate popular support into effective political power. That is not something we need right now. If a rapprochement between the US and Iran is to occur, then Iran must have a president that can draw on a wide base of support, translate it into effective decision-making, and apply it in the international arena. Khatami can and should play an important role in moving this process along, but as an advisor and counsel.

China's Recent Move on Land Leasing

2009-03-26T11:11:00.000-07:00

The Chinese government recently issued a revised draft of their 2008 Land Management Law. Although people have gained a variety of private property rights in recent years, these do not yet extend to land ownership. Instead, they can lease the land for residential, commercial, or industrial use. Land use rights are automatically renewed at the end of the allotted time. While the renewal used to be free of charge, the revision would keep open the possibility of additional fees.

The renewal fee would cause second-hand housing to depreciate in value, providing a boon to developers and construction. But the law is widely unpopular and the problems may outweigh the benefits if it sparks more unrest in a market that many Chinese don't have financial access to (that of decent affordable housing).

Entering the Age of the Jetsons

2009-03-26T10:55:00.000-07:00

A first step? This is a picture of Aptera Motor's new electric car.

The Walking Two-State Corpse

2009-03-25T14:14:00.000-07:00

Everyone seems to be operating under the assumption that a Palestinian state is still feasible. Unfortunately, the prospects for this are bad and growing increasingly worse.

The Israeli-Palestinian issue is one of the most complex problems today. Political scientists, diplomats, negotiators, world leaders, and the public have long been frustrated at the inability of the two sides to reconcile their differences and come to a mutually satisfiable agreement. In the long run, it is clearly not in the interests of either side to keep the status quo going. The Israelis and the Palestinians would clearly benefit from their own state and normalized relations. The problem is that the game is being played over a finite pot (i.e. a certain area of land and control that, once settlement is reached, would be distributed in a permanent setup between the two parties).

Now that Likud and Labor have joined together, Benjamin Netanyahu is set to take the reigns of the Israeli premiership with a majority coalition. He recently announced that he would be a willing "partner for peace" with the Palestinians. Unity talks between Fatah and Hamas will resume in the beginning of April following the Doha Summit. Some have written that a partnership between Obama and Netanyahu could be beneficial for moving towards a resolution on the Israeli-Palestinian issue. This argument likely draws its support from the fact that the Israeli-right has a better track record at coming to settlements with its Arab neighbors. It was Menachem Begin, the former leader of the Irgun (responsible for the 1946 bombing of the King David Hotel), who established ties with Anwar Sadat's Egypt. It was Ariel Sharon who initiated the unilateral withdrawal from Gaza in 2004 (although settlement expansion in the West Bank continued).

However, Netanyahu has not actually said that he supports the creation of a Palestinian state, which is of course necessary for a two-state solution to work. Add to that the split in the Palestinian leadership and the fact that Hamas clearly has greater legitimacy over the Palestinian people than Fatah (which relies more on backing from the US and regional powers like Egypt). What's the point of attempting to demarcate territorial boundaries when one side can't even act as a cohesive unit? As long as the Palestinians are plagued by this division, the Israelis will have no reason to trust that they can hold to any agreement. Under these conditions, a two-state solution is unworkable.

At this point, an agreement between Fatah and Hamas would probably not have any meaningful impact; the differences between their goals, means, character, and sources of support are just too different. Marc Lynch's recent visit to the Middle East makes it clear that Jordanians have virtually no expectation of a reconciliation between the parties.

In any case, the two-state solution is not really a solution, it's a band-aid. Let's say a miracle happens and the Palestinians get their own state. If this compromise happens, it will favor the Israelis. Some of the Palestinians will be satisfied, some will not. Over time, however, discontent will grow and the tensions will mount. Pretty soon we're back to square one with the two sides fighting again. This is not a solution because the underlying problem still exists.

You might say that, over time, it's possible that the Palestinians (or the Israelis) might lose their stomach for conflict and make greater concessions until each side is satisfied. But, if a shift of this nature were likely to happen anytime in the near future, then this problem wouldn't be nearly as complicated or frustrating as it is. Both sides feel very strongly about what they want, and the chances of both of them shifting their positions enough to make a meaningful difference is very remote. Also, excessive compromise can give rise to a backlash of extremism. Palestinians willing to give up most of the land in return for a compromise state might trigger the emergence of an even more radical group than Hamas. To me, such a scenario is more likely than both sides giving enough ground to come to a fair and equitable two-state solution.

On top of all this there is the growing problem of settlements and other forms of expansion in the West Bank, decreasing the available land for a functional Palestinian state. The West Bank is increasingly getting smaller, and the Gaza Strip is an isolated patch of land on the Mediterranean Sea. This will only get worse over time, as the peace process stalls. How can you have a functioning state that looks like the Palestinian Territories? Ah, but perhaps an agreement could be made to have the Israeli settlers withdraw. The problem with this is that as new settlements age and become old (i.e. permanent), the already strong domestic Israeli opposition to the removal of settlements will continue to get stronger. The growing influx of new settlers also makes removal more and more impractical as time goes on. In other words, the longer the peace process takes, the less viable a two-state option becomes.

So this leaves us with a one-state option. Matt Eckel has argued in support of this, but only if the preferable option of two states doesn't pan out. I recognize that a "bi-national state" (itself a misnomer, as Eckel argues) has its own problems. If they can't live next to one another in separate states, how can they live in the same state? Certainly, it is not ideal with nationalist sentiments being what they are. However, it is the only thing that I see as working in the long run. Barring a dramatic decrease in the value of the land, they are going to have to share it.

In South Africa, the transformation of society after apartheid owed much to the truth and reconciliation commissions, which helped to deal with past human rights abuses by uncovering wrongdoings, fostering discussion, and building trust. Such commissions have also been used in other countries like Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Rwanda. These are potential tools for helping to create social cohesion, easing into and strengthening the foundation of a one-state solution. Rather than applying the term of apartheid to the Israeli-Palestinian case, applying some of the instruments that helped cope with its aftermath is the real lesson that South Africa offers.

Israel is not doing what it is doing because it's an evil state that enjoys oppressing people. They have legitimate concerns that need to be addressed if any long-term peace is to be achieved. What Israel needs to understand is that they face a crucial choice: Israel can either be a secure state or it can be a Jewish state. Unless Israel is willing to incorporate the Palestinians as equal citizens with full civil and political rights, it will not have security. If the Israelis truly wish to maintain the Jewish state at the expense of peace, then they might as well wipe out all of the Palestinians now. Otherwise, both sides will slowly bleed to death, not to mention continue causing massive headaches for the international community.

How are the Arts Doing?

2009-03-23T00:18:00.000-07:00

Amid all the turmoil in the economy, Broadway has managed to shine through as a glimmer of hope. Not only are gross revenues holding their own, but there have been quite a number of openings this year. By the end of the season, more shows will have opened in the last year than in each of the past two years. Locally, ticket sales for the Pacific Northwest Ballet are back on track after weathering the snowstorms.

But the economic storm is still blowing, and the broader arts aren't weathering it quite as well. With families tightening their belts, sales for the Pacific Science Center's 5-month exhibit of Lucy were under half of the expected number. Artists have been hit hard by unemployment, and even long-standing groups like DC's Master Chorus of Washington are dying out.

Broadway might be one of the last lights on for the arts, and there's no guarantee it won't soon fade. Hopefully, Spiderman will be able to hold the line when he debuts for his musical. I mean, come on, Bono, Julie Taymor, and Peter Parker. Is that a winning combination or what?

Iraq, Fort Lewis, and the Coming Transition

2009-03-22T23:43:00.000-07:00

Within a couple weeks, the Fort Lewis-based I Corps will take over the daily operations of the conflict in Iraq as the Multi-National Corps-Iraq. The unit will be the second highest coalition in the country. Around two-thirds of I Corps' 1,000 soldiers have already departed Washington. The command change, expected on April 4, will signal the first combat deployment for I Corps since the Korean War. See here for the full article.

Whatever your opinions about the causes or conduct of the war, it is clear that violence is currently at low levels, making the coming months very important. These months will determine whether or not we solidify our recent gains. Iraq still stands on a knife's edge and the recent bombings threaten to break down the uncertain stability that exists. Our troops managing the conflict have a crucial role in minimizing the likelihood the situation deteriorating. As a local, I am proud that the I Corps will be at the forefront of this effort. This unit is one of the most decorated in the active Army.

A couple people I knew in high school have sinced joined the military and been over to Iraq. One is there now on his second tour. These are outstanding people and if the personnel of I Corps are even half as good, then there is good reason to believe in an optimistic future.

Rebirth of Iraq's Tourism Sector

2009-03-21T12:56:00.000-07:00

Well not quite... The tour company is Hinterland Travel, well known for its adventurous excursions to many of the most dangerous places you read about in the news (parts of Kurdistan, Afghanistan, Iran, and the Khyber Pass). Still, this is an important marker of the surge's positive impact.

The trip has not been nearly as perilous as most expected. On Friday night — six years after the American invasion began — a white-haired British man and woman bought big bottles of cold Heineken in central Baghdad, walking home in the dark. The Ministry of Tourism and Antiquities, which helped arrange the tour, had provided armed guards for the trip, but Mr. Hann said they were too restrictive. So the group had driven around, in a minibus, with little or no security.

They have been to Babylon and Basra, Ur and Uruk, the Shiite shrines in Karbala and Najaf, places where, not so long ago, a visit would have made the return ticket unnecessary. They made a disappointingly brief visit to the Askariya Shrine in Samarra, whose bombing in 2006 propelled an already violent Iraq toward all-out civil war.

Improving Financial Literacy

2009-03-20T21:34:00.001-07:00

A recent article in the Tacoma News Tribune discusses the need to improve financial literacy for Americans in general and youth in particular. I've been a strong advocate of this for years. I'm always dumbfounded by how people can think to mandate four years of English and "strongly recommend" four years of math and science in high school but not think it's crucial to require some training in economics and finance. The fact that "one in 5 Americans think the most practical way to become rich is to win the lottery" lends credence to my view. It should be apparent now in the midst of this crisis that an understanding of economics and finance is important in life, but it's sad if it takes something so severe to force this realization upon people.

Senator Patty Murray (D-WA) will be introducing legislation that would authorize $1.2 billion in grants over five years to promote financial literacy education (for grade school students through adults). Last year, Murray proposed a similar measure, the Financial Literacy Improvement Act of 2008, which never made it out of committee. Despite the budget shortfall and many inevitable education cuts, I'm hoping that something comes of this (even if it just helps spur private funding through donations and grants). Some have written that financial literacy should be left solely up to the private sector. This argument is completely lost on me. Government funding doesn't mean that the programs will teach only socialist ideology and big government. What's the difference for state tuition support at public colleges and state financial support for a financial literacy program? Training in economics and finance should be viewed like any other subject. The private sector argument has even less credence with me after hearing on NPR that the biggest provider of financial education in the US is none other than AIG. Now maybe I'm crazy but something seems to be just a little bit off.

The main problem with leaving this education in private hands (specifically in finance) is that those who are most knowledgeable about the subject usually have an incentive to skew the material in a way that could potentially benefit their company. For example, regarding investment strategies, you could teach that it's a good idea to borrow $100,000 against your home equity (even if you've only paid off half of the original value) because the total value went up from $200,000 to $300,000 (and of course housing values can only go up). Education should take a more-or-less neutral stance and point out the benefits and costs of doing this. But if your company could potentially gain by more people taking such actions... isn't that what's called a conflict of interest?

Economics and finance are critical to understand in a world that has become more and more based on abstract financial instruments. Most people won't find literary analysis or the difference between cell walls and cell membranes all that useful in life. Most people do need to understand equity, credit scores, identity theft, and what it means when the Federal Reserve says it's slashing interest rates.

Link: ICW Posts

2009-03-20T20:35:00.001-07:00

I've written a few times over at the Independent Colleges of Washington blog One Child at a Time. My most recent one is about Creative Commons and open education resources. These are incredible innovations that are revolutionizing creativity in teaching and learning. If you're at all interested in how technology is redefining the standards of education, you should definitely take a look at this. An earlier post looks at a state representative in Washington and the great work he is putting in for this important cause.

Also check out Cable Green's blogs listed under my recommended reading list.

Analyzing the Overtures to Iran

2009-03-20T18:28:00.000-07:00

On the Persian New Year Nowruz, Iran has received messages for warmer relations from President Obama and Israeli President Shimon Peres. Both Obama and Peres appealed to Iran's history and culture, assuring that the Islamic Republic has a place in the international community. Following up some of his ealier sentiments about greater openness with Iran, Obama called for Iran to act as a responsible stakeholder and diplomatically work in concert with other states and international institutions to resolve differences and disputes.

A message from the American President on Nowruz is not completely unprecedented. Former President Bush also sent his greetings and even participated in an interview with Voice of America one year. But although the content of Obama's speech broke no new ground, the format of the video message was rather unusual and potentially indicates more willingness for peaceful cooperation. Of course, a speech is just a speech, and it remains to be seen whether or not substantial headway can be made a variety of issues, including Iran's uranium enrichment, support for terrorist groups, and its threatening of Israel. So far, Iran's response has been positive but tentative.

Obama was smart and careful with his wording. He said that the US was committed to advancing diplomacy and that this process would not move forward with threats. This doesn't rule out threats, it merely puts them on hiatus. The absence of threats refers only to the process of diplomacy. Obama's language permits a certain flexibility in options should that process fail. It's a good sign that Obama views it imprudent to completely commit to a particular path before he has more grasp over the intentions of the Iranian leadership.

Ali Akbar Javanfekr (Ahmadinejad's press advisor) has accused Obama of taking no concrete steps to "repair mistakes committed" in the past. Iran reserves the right to demand action along with rhetoric. After all, the US did renew sanctions on the country. The road to reconciliation is full of complications. While the withdrawal of US support for Israel is a completely unrealistic expectation, easing the sanctions or releasing the freeze on some Iranian assets might convince Iran that the US is earnest. There is also prospect in Obama's invitation for Iran to attend a conference on Afghanistan scheduled for March 31st. Although Secretary of State Hilary Clinton has said that there are no plans for a separate meeting with Iran's delegation at the conference, Obama's video appeal (coming after Clinton's statement) sets the tone for the meeting and may help ease into talks either at the conference or in the future. Moreover, Russia has invited the US to another Afghanistan conference hosted by the Shanghai Cooperative Organization. If the US decides to attend, it will have a chance to prepare the ground before the 31st.

Strangely enough, Peres' audio message may work to undermine greater cooperation with Iran. Recently, Israel has started to break with the US over how to deal with Iran. Peres was harsher than Obama in his message, dismissing some of Iran's leaders as fanatics and leveling comments like "you can't feed your children enriched uranium." While the Israeli appeal is welcome as an effort towards better relations, the context in which it was delivered might actually reduce the sincerity and impact of Obama's overture, especially if the hardliners in Iran pair them together to polarize national sentiments.

Nevertheless, these conciliatory moves have opened a window of opportunity. The coming weeks will show how big the window is and how long it can last.

It's the thought that counts

2009-03-20T16:28:00.000-07:00

Matt Eckel over at Foreign Policy Watch posted about this, but it's just too embarrassing and funny not to put on here.

Albino Elephant!?

2009-03-20T09:57:00.000-07:00

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7951331.stm

Botswana's so cool.

Unstable World Through Malaysian Eyes

2009-03-19T22:58:00.000-07:00

For my thesis seminar, we recently read Parag Khanna's The Second World, in which he argues that there are a number of countries which fall between underdeveloped and developed (the "Second World.") Khanna views Malaysia as one such country that has by his account been a success.

Asian values, Islam, and democracy and all stirring together in the Malaysian pot, but without yet coming to a boil. (283)

Today's IHT article suggests that the country may be reaching its boiling point. The truth is that Malaysia has never been a model of ethnic and religious tolerance. Ethnic Malays represent only a slight majority in the country, with the rest being mostly Chinese, Indian, and indigenous groups. While Malays have been able to hold relatively dominant political power, the Chinese have traditionally done the best economically (a running theme in most Chinese diasporic groups.)

Although power sharing arrangements across ethnic divides have produced stability in the past, it is a mistake to think that development and democratization are inevitably progressing in a country so heavily fragmented on a variety of dimensions. Even if it's not binding, I would hardly call the recent ban on yoga a good example of democracy or a nice balance of Asian values and Islam. Malaysia still requires national identity cards, with ethnicity and religion printed on them in nice big letters.

Malaysia is better off now than before its oil boom in the 1970s which helped set the country on the path of economic development and diversification. The country's actions during the 1997 financial crisis (capital controls, pegging the ringgit to the dollar) allowed it to largely avoid the devastation that hit countries such as Thailand and Indonesia. Still, Malaysia does not warrant Khanna's portrayal of the country as a shining example of democracy, development, and cultural tolerance. If Najib Razak does succeed Abdullah Badawi as prime minister, Malaysia could see some serious backsliding in the near future. But even if Razak's succession doesn't happen, the mess that is Malaysian politics won't just vanish.

The Danger of Inconsistencies

2009-03-19T22:19:00.001-07:00

There have a number of inconsistencies among the many policies and statements of the Obama administration. In his first major education speech, Obama spoke about student performance in eighth grade math. Although he gave the correct ranking compared to other countries (ninth), he inaccurately conveyed the impression that performance was worsening instead of improving.

The President has called for stricter standards, merit-based pay, and more support for charter schools. His education agenda rests, at least in part, on the idea that our students are slipping. Certainly there is no denying that there are major problems. Yet the idea that our students are constantly falling behind is not without challenge. It's also possible that the President made an honest mistake. Unfortunately, this mistake casts Obama's argument in the light that he is twisting facts to push a particular agenda through, potentially undermining a legitimate argument.

It is also doubtful that such inconsistencies are truly honest mistakes across the board. For example, calling for stricter standards for teaching through merit-pay doesn't quite seem to jibe with the shying away from the AIG bonuses (which taken from a merit standpoint are rather absurd.) Then there is Obama's perfectly clear stance on trade...

First Post!

2009-03-19T15:30:00.000-07:00

What better way to celebrate the grand opening of my first blog than with the release of Washington State's final revenue forecast. Check out the doom and gloom here and here.

My hope is that I will have enough time between school and jobs to keep up posting on a regular basis...

Until next time, Patch says hi.